Sport Picks

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Morton vs Arbroath

Scotland Scotland

Championship Cappielow Park, Greenock
Sat, Aug 22, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Morton host Arbroath in the Championship. This one's hard to separate. Morton have averaged 0.79 scored and 1.79 conceded recently, against Arbroath's 1.27 scored and 1.3 conceded. Past meetings favor Morton slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 28, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.35 vs 1.44, favoring Arbroath. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Morton
15%
Draws
85%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arbroath

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Arbroath have won more games recently than Morton.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Morton Clean Sheet 16%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morton Arbroath
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 5 9
Draws 6 9
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.79 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Championship
Morton vs Arbroath
2:1
Jan 23, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Morton
1:1
Nov 8, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Arbroath
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Championship
Arbroath vs Morton
1:1
Apr 20, 2024 Championship
Arbroath vs Morton
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morton 36 / 100
Arbroath 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morton Arbroath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arbroath let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Difficult form: Arbroath registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Morton's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Morton VS Arbroath
0 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Morton

(Home)
08 Aug
Stenhousemuir
2 : 0
Morton
01 Aug
Morton
0 : 1
Partick
25 Jul
Morton
0 : 1
Inverness
18 Jul
St Johnstone
3 : 0
Morton
14 Jul
East Fife
2 : 0
Morton
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Arbroath

(Away)
08 Aug
Arbroath
0 : 0
Inverness
01 Aug
Ayr
2 : 0
Arbroath
25 Jul
Arbroath
1 : 0
Stirling
21 Jul
Arbroath
0 : 2
Montrose
18 Jul
Dundee Utd
3 : 0
Arbroath
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Partick 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
2 Ayr 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Stenhousemuir 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
4 Raith 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
5 Livingston 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
6 Dunfermline 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
7 Inverness 2 0 2 0 0:0 2
8 Arbroath 2 0 1 1 0:2 1
9 Queen's Park 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
10 Morton 2 0 0 2 0:3 0
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)