Sport Picks

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Morton vs Arbroath

Scotland Scotland

Championship Cappielow Park, Greenock
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Bonnar J.
Assist: Mackie S.
46'
Sub
Mcluckie B. In: O'Halloran M.
Out: Mcluckie B.
48' Event
Black D.
Assist: Garrity M.

AI Match Summary

Arbroath in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arbroath.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Morton
20%
Draws
70%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arbroath

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Arbroath have won more games recently than Morton.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Morton Clean Sheet 20%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morton Arbroath
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 4 9
Draws 6 10
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 0.71 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Championship
Morton vs Arbroath
1:2
Mar 28, 2026 Championship
Morton vs Arbroath
2:1
Jan 23, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Morton
1:1
Nov 8, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Arbroath
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Championship
Arbroath vs Morton
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morton Compare

Top Goalscorer Black D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Arbroath Compare

Top Goalscorer Bonnar J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader O'Brien T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morton 32 / 100
Arbroath 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morton Arbroath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arbroath Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arbroath let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: Morton scored in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Morton stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Morton VS Arbroath
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Morton

(Home)
25 Sept
Inverness
2 : 0
Morton
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
11 Sept
Morton
1 : 4
Livingston
05 Sept
Queen's Park
2 : 1
Morton
29 Aug
Ayr
1 : 1
Morton
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Arbroath

(Away)
25 Sept
Arbroath
2 : 1
Queen's Park
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
12 Sept
Raith
4 : 0
Arbroath
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
29 Aug
Arbroath
1 : 0
Livingston
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 8 7 1 0 12:2 22
2 Raith 8 4 2 2 11:5 14
3 Livingston 8 4 1 3 12:7 13
4 Partick 7 3 3 1 5:2 12
5 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 6:4 12
6 Arbroath 8 3 2 3 6:10 11
7 Inverness 8 2 4 2 9:9 10
8 Ayr 8 2 2 4 7:9 8
9 Queen's Park 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
10 Morton 8 0 1 7 4:15 1
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)