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Stadium Background

Motagua vs Estrella

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa
Motagua Logo

Motagua

0 - 2
FT
Estrella Logo

Estrella

Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Duarte E.
12'
Miranda J.
42'
Sub
Duarte E. In: Rosales O.
Out: Duarte E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Estrella in this Liga Nacional matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Estrella.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Motagua
35%
Draws
25%
Estrella
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Motagua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Motagua have won more games recently than Estrella.
  • Win probability leans Motagua's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Motagua Clean Sheet 68%
Estrella Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motagua Estrella
Matches Played 35 8
Wins 18 2
Draws 9 3
Losses 8 3
Goals Scored 1.66 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.83 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Estrella
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motagua Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Estrella Compare

Top Goalscorer Mayorquin R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gomez E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motagua 95 / 100
Estrella 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motagua Estrella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Motagua Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrella has conceded goals in 88% of their last 8 outings.

Motagua scored in 77% of their last 35 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Motagua went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Motagua VS Estrella
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Motagua

(Home)
20 Sept
Real Espana
1 : 0
Motagua
17 Sept
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Motagua
13 Sept
Motagua
1 : 0
Genesis FC
10 Sept
Motagua
3 : 0
Alianza FC
05 Sept
Atletico Independiente
0 : 0
Motagua
Page 1 of 7

Estrella

(Away)
19 Sept
CD Choloma
2 : 0
Estrella
12 Sept
Estrella
2 : 2
Platense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
30 Aug
Estrella
2 : 2
Olimpia
22 Aug
Estrella
5 : 2
Juticalpa
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 13:4 18
2 Olimpia 8 5 2 1 19:7 17
3 Marathon 8 5 2 1 14:6 17
4 Motagua 8 4 1 3 11:8 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 8:19 6
12 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)