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Motherwell vs Hearts Prediction & H2H Stats

Scotland Scotland

Premiership 2025/2026 Fir Park, Motherwell
Motherwell Logo

Motherwell

1 - 1
FT
Hearts Logo

Hearts

Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Just E.
25' Event
Kingsley S.
Own Goal
43' Event
Shankland L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premiership 2025/2026 game between Motherwell and Hearts finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Motherwell
20%
Draws
57%
Hearts
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hearts

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Hearts carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hearts are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Premiership 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Motherwell Clean Sheet 10%
Hearts Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motherwell Hearts
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 10 17
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.42 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Premiership
Motherwell vs Hearts
1:1
Apr 11, 2026 Premiership
Hearts vs Motherwell
3:1
Nov 29, 2025 Premiership
Motherwell vs Hearts
0:0
Aug 23, 2025 Premiership
Hearts vs Motherwell
3:3
May 10, 2025 Premiership
Hearts vs Motherwell
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motherwell Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Hearts Compare

Top Goalscorer Shankland L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motherwell 10 / 100
Hearts 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motherwell Hearts

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hearts Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Motherwell scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Hearts conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Motherwell has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Motherwell VS Hearts
1.25 Goals Scored 2.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Motherwell

(Home)
19 Sept
Dundee FC
2 : 1
Motherwell
15 Sept
Motherwell
0 : 4
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Rangers
1 : 0
Motherwell
02 Sept
Motherwell
3 : 0
Dundee Utd
30 Aug
St. Mirren
3 : 3
Motherwell
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Hearts

(Away)
19 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 1
Hearts
15 Sept
Falkirk
2 : 1
Hearts
11 Sept
Stenhousemuir
0 : 3
Hearts
06 Sept
Hearts
2 : 1
Dundee FC
03 Sept
Hibernian
1 : 3
Hearts
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Celtic 38 26 4 8 73:41 82
2 Hearts 38 24 8 6 67:34 80
3 Rangers 38 20 12 6 76:43 72
4 Motherwell 38 16 13 9 59:36 61
5 Hibernian 38 15 12 11 58:44 57
6 Falkirk 38 14 7 17 50:62 49
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)