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Motril vs Arenas Armilla - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Salvatierra D.
Penalty Missed
65' Event
Salvatierra D.
90' Event
Camacho C.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Motril
30%
Draws
37%
Arenas Armilla
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arenas Armilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Motril haven't matched Arenas Armilla's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Arenas Armilla arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Motril Clean Sheet 68%
Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motril Arenas Armilla
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 13 15
Draws 11 9
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.45 1.32
Goals Conceded 0.94 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Arenas Armilla
1:1
May 31, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Motril
1:0
Feb 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Arenas Armilla
1:1
Oct 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Motril
0:2
Mar 30, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Motril
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motril Compare

Top Goalscorer Camacho C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Arenas Armilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Salvatierra D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motril 42 / 100
Arenas Armilla 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motril Arenas Armilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Motril scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Arenas Armilla let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Motril stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Motril VS Arenas Armilla
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Motril

(Home)
04 Oct
UD San Pedro
2 : 3
Motril
27 Sept
Motril
2 : 0
CD Alhaurino
20 Sept
Malaga Juniors
1 : 2
Motril
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1
Torre del Mar
09 Sept
Motril
0 : 2
Recreativo Huelva
Page 1 of 7

Arenas Armilla

(Away)
04 Oct
Torre del Mar
0 : 1
Arenas Armilla
27 Sept
Arenas Armilla
3 : 3
Huetor Vega
20 Sept
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Mancha
06 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
0 : 2
Arenas Armilla
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Motril 1
Churriana de la Vega 1
Torre del Mar 0
Arenas Armilla 2
Final
Motril 1
Arenas Armilla 2