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Motril vs CP Almeria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Lopez A.
44' Event
Cobo M.
47' Event
Lopez A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2024/2025 game between Motril and CP Almeria finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Motril.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Motril
20%
Draws
7%
CP Almeria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Motril

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Motril carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Motril are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Motril here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Motril Clean Sheet 68%
CP Almeria Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motril CP Almeria
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 7
Draws 11 2
Losses 6 21
Goals Scored 1.52 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.94 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs CP Almeria
4:0
Nov 10, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
CP Almeria vs Motril
1:3
Apr 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs CP Almeria
1:0
Nov 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
CP Almeria vs Motril
0:0
May 23, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs CP Almeria
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motril Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cobo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

CP Almeria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motril 95 / 100
CP Almeria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motril CP Almeria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Motril Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: CP Almeria conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Motril found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Motril remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Motril VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Motril

(Home)
04 Oct
UD San Pedro
2 : 3
Motril
27 Sept
Motril
2 : 0
CD Alhaurino
20 Sept
Malaga Juniors
1 : 2
Motril
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1
Torre del Mar
09 Sept
Motril
0 : 2
Recreativo Huelva
Page 1 of 7

CP Almeria

(Away)
11 May
CP Almeria
1 : 2
CD Torreperogil
04 May
Malaga Juniors
3 : 1
CP Almeria
01 May
CP Almeria
2 : 2
Marbelli
27 Apr
El Palo
3 : 0
CP Almeria
13 Apr
CP Almeria
0 : 1
Huetor Tajar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malaga B 34 26 5 3 76:22 83
2 Jaen 34 22 7 5 60:35 73
3 Motril 34 18 7 9 57:35 61
4 Torre del Mar 34 18 7 9 48:30 61
5 Huetor Tajar 34 17 6 11 35:28 57
6 Huetor Vega 34 16 9 9 49:36 57
7 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 14 12 8 53:35 54
8 CD Torreperogil 34 13 11 10 42:37 50
9 Mancha 34 13 7 14 37:39 46
10 Marbelli 34 11 9 14 32:42 42
11 El Palo 34 10 11 13 36:49 41
12 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 10 10 14 43:44 40
13 Arenas Armilla 34 9 11 14 40:49 38
14 Martos 34 11 5 18 28:41 38
15 Atletico de Porcuna 34 9 9 16 45:55 36
16 Ejido 34 7 6 21 36:68 27
17 CP Almeria 34 7 2 25 35:75 23
18 Malaga Juniors 34 5 6 23 31:63 21
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025 (Promotion - Play Offs)