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Motril vs Mancha Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Williams A.
36' Event
Juanma
53' Event
Williams A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between Motril and Mancha finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Motril.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Motril
30%
Draws
12%
Mancha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Motril

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Motril carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Motril are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Motril Clean Sheet 68%
Mancha Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motril Mancha
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 6
Draws 11 8
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.38 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Mancha
3:1
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Motril
0:1
Mar 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Mancha
2:2
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Motril
2:1
Mar 23, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Motril
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motril Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Nieto S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Mancha Compare

Top Goalscorer Juanma
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motril 95 / 100
Mancha 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motril Mancha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Motril Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Motril's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Mancha let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Motril went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Motril VS Mancha
0.63 Goals Scored 0.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Motril

(Home)
04 Oct
UD San Pedro
2 : 3
Motril
27 Sept
Motril
2 : 0
CD Alhaurino
20 Sept
Malaga Juniors
1 : 2
Motril
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1
Torre del Mar
09 Sept
Motril
0 : 2
Recreativo Huelva
Page 1 of 6

Mancha

(Away)
04 Oct
Huetor Vega
3 : 0
Mancha
27 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
20 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
1 : 0
Mancha
13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Mancha
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Marbelli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 19 9 6 46:24 66
2 Motril 34 18 11 5 55:29 65
3 Torre del Mar 34 14 13 7 37:26 55
4 Arenas Armilla 34 15 9 10 38:29 54
5 Churriana de la Vega 34 14 10 10 32:40 52
6 Marbelli 34 14 9 11 36:28 51
7 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 13 11 10 39:38 50
8 UD San Pedro 34 13 10 11 39:37 49
9 Atletico de Porcuna 34 14 4 16 41:39 46
10 Huetor Vega 34 12 9 13 43:42 45
11 Granada CF B 34 10 14 10 49:47 44
12 CD Alhaurino 34 11 10 13 41:41 43
13 Melilla B 34 9 12 13 30:32 39
14 Mancha 34 9 10 15 30:38 37
15 Huetor Tajar 34 9 10 15 40:44 37
16 Martos 34 9 10 15 32:48 37
17 CD Torreperogil 34 9 6 19 24:45 33
18 El Palo 34 6 9 19 28:53 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)