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Motril vs Mancha

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Williams A.
36' Event
Juanma
53' Event
Williams A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between Motril and Mancha finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Motril.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Motril
35%
Draws
30%
Mancha
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Motril carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 35% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Motril Clean Sheet 68%
Mancha Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motril Mancha
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 15 8
Draws 13 9
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.71 0.94
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Mancha
3:1
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Motril
0:1
Mar 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Mancha
2:2
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Motril
2:1
Mar 23, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Motril
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motril Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Nieto S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Mancha Compare

Top Goalscorer Juanma
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motril 41 / 100
Mancha 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motril Mancha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Motril's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Mancha let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Motril went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Motril VS Mancha
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Motril

(Home)
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
31 May
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Motril
24 May
Motril
0 : 0
Churriana de la Vega
17 May
Churriana de la Vega
1 : 1
Motril
10 May
Motril
2 : 1
Atletico de Porcuna
Page 1 of 7

Mancha

(Away)
10 May
CD Alhaurino
1 : 1
Mancha
03 May
Mancha
1 : 2
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
26 Apr
Granada CF B
2 : 2
Mancha
19 Apr
Mancha
2 : 1
Huetor Vega
11 Apr
Huetor Tajar
2 : 1
Mancha
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 19 9 6 46:24 66
2 Motril 34 18 11 5 55:29 65
3 Torre del Mar 34 14 13 7 37:26 55
4 Arenas Armilla 34 15 9 10 38:29 54
5 Churriana de la Vega 34 14 10 10 32:40 52
6 Marbelli 34 14 9 11 36:28 51
7 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 13 11 10 39:38 50
8 UD San Pedro 34 13 10 11 39:37 49
9 Atletico de Porcuna 34 14 4 16 41:39 46
10 Huetor Vega 34 12 9 13 43:42 45
11 Granada CF B 34 10 14 10 49:47 44
12 CD Alhaurino 34 11 10 13 41:41 43
13 Melilla B 34 9 12 13 30:32 39
14 Mancha 34 9 10 15 30:38 37
15 Huetor Tajar 34 9 10 15 40:44 37
16 Martos 34 9 10 15 32:48 37
17 CD Torreperogil 34 9 6 19 24:45 33
18 El Palo 34 6 9 19 28:53 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)