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Moura AC vs Lagoa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Gabriel E.
32' Event
Tavares A.
89' Event
Gabriel E.

AI Match Summary

Moura AC in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Moura AC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Moura AC
30%
Draws
39%
Lagoa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lagoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Moura AC haven't matched Lagoa's recent run of results.
  • Moura AC are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Moura AC Clean Sheet 68%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moura AC Lagoa
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 12
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 1.07 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs Moura AC
0:1
Dec 15, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moura AC vs Lagoa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moura AC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel E.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Lagoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Tavares A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moura AC 50 / 100
Lagoa 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moura AC Lagoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moura AC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moura AC's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lagoa let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Moura AC stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lagoa
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Moura AC

(Home)
13 Apr
Moura AC
1 : 2
Amora
06 Apr
Lagoa
0 : 1
Moura AC
29 Mar
Moura AC
1 : 1
Estrela da Amadora B
16 Mar
Moura AC
1 : 2
Sintrense
09 Mar
Moura AC
0 : 1
Louletano
Page 1 of 6

Lagoa

(Away)
19 Sept
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Lagoa
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Santa Clara B
1 : 2
Lagoa
23 Aug
Imortal
1 : 0
Lagoa
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitano GC 26 18 4 4 57:14 58
2 Amora 26 17 6 3 41:19 57
3 Sintrense 26 16 4 6 39:26 52
4 Moncarapachense 26 15 6 5 39:19 51
5 Louletano 26 15 5 6 44:20 50
6 Serpa 26 13 6 7 42:27 45
7 Estrela da Amadora B 26 7 9 10 35:31 30
8 Lagoa 26 7 9 10 26:35 30
9 Industria 26 8 5 13 35:42 29
10 Fabril do Barreiro 26 6 9 11 21:32 27
11 Moura AC 26 7 5 14 27:50 26
12 Operario 26 6 5 15 22:43 23
13 FC Barreirense 26 5 7 14 31:47 22
14 Estrela Vendas Novas 26 1 2 23 12:66 5
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)