Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Estádio do Zimpeto, Maputo

Mozambique

0 - 1

Mali

Our Tip

Match Events

19'

Doumbia K.

Assist: Bissouma Y.

23'

Camara M.

25'

Jone F.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Mali advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%

Mozambique

20%

Draws

70%

Mali

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Mali come out ahead of Mozambique on wins alone.
70% — that's where the model lands on Mali taking it.
Mali arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Mali, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
History favors Mali here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%

Mozambique Clean Sheet 16%

Mali Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mozambique	Mali
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	9	12
Draws	5	10
Losses	15	6
Goals Scored	1.07	1.21
Goals Conceded	1.79	0.5
Expected Goals (xG)	0.81	1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Mozambique vs Mali

0:1

Sep 6, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Mali vs Mozambique

1:1

Jan 19, 2014 African Nations Championship

Mozambique vs Mali

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mozambique Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62

Avg xA / game 0.41

Mali Compare

Top Goalscorer Doumbia K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.31

Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mozambique 15 / 100

Mali 77 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mozambique Mali

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mozambique found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Mali has conceded goals in 43% of their last 28 outings.

Mozambique went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mozambique VS Mali

0.88 Goals Scored 0.5

2.38 Goals Conceded 0.75

75% Over 1.5 50%

63% Over 2.5 13%

50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mozambique

(Home)

25 Sept

Mozambique

1 : 1

Senegal

09 Jun

Indonesia

1 : 0

Mozambique

07 Jun

Oman

4 : 1

Mozambique

05 Jan

Nigeria

4 : 0

Mozambique

31 Dec

Mozambique

1 : 2

Cameroon

Page 1 of 6

Mali

(Away)

25 Sept

Mali

3 : 1

Cape Verde

04 Jun

Iran

2 : 0

Mali

31 Mar

Russia

0 : 0

Mali

09 Jan

Mali

0 : 1

Senegal

03 Jan

Mali

2 : 1

Tunisia

Page 1 of 6