Sport Picks

Africa

African Nations Championship

Zambia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mozambique play Zambia in the African Nations Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mozambique averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Zambia averaged 1 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. In past meetings, Mozambique won 2, Zambia won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Dec 28, 2024 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Mozambique and 1.13 for Zambia. This points to a Mozambique double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Mozambique

16%

Draws

40%

Zambia

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Mozambique

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Mozambique picked up more points recently compared to Zambia.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%

Mozambique Clean Sheet 21%

Zambia Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mozambique	Zambia
Matches Played	30	26
Wins	10	8
Draws	4	4
Losses	16	14
Goals Scored	1.1	1
Goals Conceded	1.77	1.58
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 28, 2024 African Nations Championship

Zambia vs Mozambique

Possession: 58% - 42% Cards: 1 - 0

3:0

Dec 21, 2024 African Nations Championship

Mozambique vs Zambia

Possession: 55% - 44% Cards: 3 - 3

0:3

Jul 30, 2022 African Nations Championship

Zambia vs Mozambique

Possession: 57% - 55% Cards: 2 - 0

0:1

Jul 24, 2022 African Nations Championship

Mozambique vs Zambia

Possession: 54% - 48% Cards: 3 - 4

0:0

Nov 18, 2018 Africa Cup of Nations

Mozambique vs Zambia

Possession: 47% - 55% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mozambique 44 / 100

Zambia 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mozambique Zambia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mozambique or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mozambique attacking → ← attacking Zambia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mozambique scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Zambia let in goals in 65% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Mozambique went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Zambia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 28

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63