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Mtarfa vs Qrendi

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2022/2023
Mtarfa Logo

Mtarfa

2 - 3
FT
Qrendi Logo

Qrendi

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2022/2023 game between Mtarfa and Qrendi finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Qrendi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Mtarfa
15%
Draws
85%
Qrendi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Qrendi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Qrendi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Qrendi are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Challenge League 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Mtarfa Clean Sheet 10%
Qrendi Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mtarfa Qrendi
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 5 9
Draws 2 6
Losses 25 15
Goals Scored 0.72 1.33
Goals Conceded 3.44 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 22, 2023 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Qrendi
0:1
Dec 18, 2022 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Qrendi
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mtarfa 10 / 100
Qrendi 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mtarfa Qrendi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Qrendi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Qrendi has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Mtarfa scored in 38% of their last 32 games.

Qrendi's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mtarfa VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
4.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mtarfa

(Home)
19 Apr
Mtarfa
1 : 5
Santa Lucia
11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0
Mtarfa
01 Apr
Mtarfa
0 : 1
Vittoriosa
15 Mar
Gudja
3 : 0
Mtarfa
07 Mar
Mtarfa
0 : 2
Zurrieq
Page 1 of 7

Qrendi

(Away)
05 Feb
Mosta FC
4 : 0
Qrendi
10 Jan
Sirens
0 : 2
Qrendi
23 Apr
Qrendi
2 : 2
Marsa
16 Apr
Marsaskala FC
1 : 3
Qrendi
05 Apr
Qrendi
1 : 2
Fgura
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sliema 17 15 2 0 40:10 47
2 Naxxar Lions 17 13 2 2 40:15 41
3 Zejtun 17 11 0 6 35:22 33
4 Tarxien 17 9 5 3 34:19 32
5 Zurrieq 17 9 2 6 33:28 29
6 Melita 17 7 5 5 29:22 26
7 Fgura 17 7 4 6 41:25 25
8 Marsa 17 6 6 5 27:23 24
9 Swieqi 17 6 6 5 33:31 24
10 St. Andrews 17 6 4 7 23:27 22
11 Lija 17 5 5 7 28:32 20
12 Attard 17 5 4 8 19:30 19
13 San Gwann 17 5 3 9 20:34 18
14 Marsaskala FC 17 4 3 10 28:39 15
15 Mqabba FC 17 4 3 10 21:36 15
16 Qrendi 17 3 5 9 19:36 14
17 Mtarfa 17 4 2 11 11:28 14
18 Vittoriosa 17 3 1 13 14:38 10
Promotion - Challenge League 2022/2023 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League 2022/2023 (Relegation Group)