Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mtarfa vs Zurrieq

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2025/2026 Victor Tedesco Stadium, Hamrun
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Aquilina G.
77' Event
Aquilina G.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2025/2026 game between Mtarfa and Zurrieq finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Zurrieq.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Mtarfa
15%
Draws
85%
Zurrieq
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Zurrieq

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Mtarfa haven't matched Zurrieq's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Zurrieq a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Zurrieq have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Mtarfa Clean Sheet 10%
Zurrieq Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mtarfa Zurrieq
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 12
Draws 2 4
Losses 23 14
Goals Scored 0.7 1.73
Goals Conceded 3.53 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 3.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Zurrieq
0:2
Jan 11, 2026 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Mtarfa
1:1
Nov 24, 2024 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Mtarfa
1:0
Oct 22, 2022 Challenge League
Zurrieq vs Mtarfa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mtarfa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Zurrieq Compare

Top Goalscorer Aquilina G.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.9
Avg xA / game 1.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mtarfa 10 / 100
Zurrieq 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mtarfa Zurrieq

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zurrieq Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zurrieq let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Attacking prowess: Mtarfa scored in 37% of their last 30 outings.

Away concern: Zurrieq has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mtarfa VS Zurrieq
0 Goals Scored 1.5
4.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mtarfa

(Home)
19 Apr
Mtarfa
1 : 5
Santa Lucia
11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0
Mtarfa
01 Apr
Mtarfa
0 : 1
Vittoriosa
15 Mar
Gudja
3 : 0
Mtarfa
07 Mar
Mtarfa
0 : 2
Zurrieq
Page 1 of 6

Zurrieq

(Away)
18 Apr
Zurrieq
4 : 2
Mgarr
12 Apr
Santa Lucia
3 : 0
Zurrieq
01 Apr
Zurrieq
2 : 1
Marsa
15 Mar
Zurrieq
3 : 3
Zebbug
07 Mar
Mtarfa
0 : 2
Zurrieq
Page 1 of 6