Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Municipal vs Malacateco

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera, Guatemala City
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Martinez J.
42'
Perez Ochoa C. A.
45'
Saravia R.

AI Match Summary

Municipal in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Municipal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Municipal
30%
Draws
23%
Malacateco
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Municipal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Municipal have won more games recently than Malacateco.
  • Win probability leans Municipal's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Municipal have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Municipal Clean Sheet 68%
Malacateco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Municipal Malacateco
Matches Played 38 28
Wins 24 7
Draws 7 6
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.58 0.96
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.66 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Liga Nacional
Municipal vs Malacateco
1:0
Feb 7, 2026 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Municipal
1:3
Oct 25, 2025 Liga Nacional
Municipal vs Malacateco
4:1
Aug 16, 2025 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Municipal
2:3
Apr 6, 2025 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Municipal
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Municipal Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Malacateco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Municipal 77 / 100
Malacateco 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Municipal Malacateco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Municipal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Municipal found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (38 games).

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Malacateco let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Municipal went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Municipal VS Malacateco
1.75 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.57
75% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Municipal

(Home)
23 Aug
Municipal
2 : 0
Xelaju
20 Aug
FAS
1 : 1
Municipal
15 Aug
Guastatoya
1 : 0
Municipal
09 Aug
Municipal
2 : 0
Coban Imperial
07 Aug
Verdes
0 : 1
Municipal
Page 1 of 8

Malacateco

(Away)
24 Aug
Malacateco
2 : 0
Deportivo San Pedro
16 Aug
Comunicaciones
4 : 2
Malacateco
08 Aug
Malacateco
2 : 2
Xelaju
02 Aug
Guastatoya
4 : 0
Malacateco
26 Jul
Malacateco
1 : 1
Coban Imperial
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Xelaju 22 11 6 5 34:19 39
2 Municipal 22 11 5 6 32:21 38
3 Deportivo Mixco 22 10 6 6 30:26 36
4 Comunicaciones 22 11 2 9 28:26 35
5 Antigua 22 9 7 6 34:29 34
6 Coban Imperial 22 8 8 6 29:22 32
7 Guastatoya 22 8 7 7 29:21 31
8 Marquense 22 9 3 10 25:29 30
9 Mictlan 22 7 6 9 25:36 27
10 Malacateco 22 6 4 12 19:25 22
11 Aurora F.C. 22 4 8 10 14:30 20
12 Deportivo Achuapa 22 5 4 13 17:32 19
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)