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Mura vs Nafta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Mestni stadion Fazanerija, Murska Sobota
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mura host Nafta in the Prva liga. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Mura have averaged 1.04 scored and 1.88 conceded recently, against Nafta's 1.48 scored and 1.28 conceded. Past meetings favor Nafta slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 1, 2026, ending 5:2. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 2.00, favoring Nafta. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Mura
20%
Draws
60%
Nafta
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nafta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nafta lately — more wins on the board than Mura.
  • Model gives Nafta a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Mura Clean Sheet 10%
Nafta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mura Nafta
Matches Played 25 29
Wins 6 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.04 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Prva liga
Nafta vs Mura
5:2
Dec 3, 2025 Slovenian Cup
Mura vs Nafta
1:2
Apr 5, 2025 Prva liga
Nafta vs Mura
4:2
Feb 2, 2025 Prva liga
Mura vs Nafta
0:0
Sep 28, 2024 Prva liga
Nafta vs Mura
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mura 18 / 100
Nafta 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mura Nafta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nafta Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Mura scored in 68% of their last 25 outings.

Nafta has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Nafta's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mura VS Nafta
1.13 Goals Scored 2.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mura

(Home)
20 Sept
Mura
0 : 0
Celje
13 Sept
Mura
1 : 6
Aluminij
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
29 Aug
Bravo
2 : 0
Mura
22 Aug
Mura
0 : 1
Koper
Page 1 of 5

Nafta

(Away)
19 Sept
Koper
2 : 0
Nafta
11 Sept
Grosuplje
1 : 2
Nafta
04 Sept
Nafta
3 : 1
Radomlje
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
21 Aug
O. Ljubljana
1 : 0
Nafta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 19:8 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 12:10 18
4 O. Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 10:8 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 16:11 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 11:11 12
8 Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 14:18 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 10:21 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 9:18 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)