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Muranga vs Kakamega Homeboyz

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Macharia J. I.

AI Match Summary

Muranga in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Muranga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Muranga
20%
Draws
15%
Kakamega Homeboyz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Muranga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Muranga lately — more wins on the board than Kakamega Homeboyz.
  • 65% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Muranga Clean Sheet 20%
Kakamega Homeboyz Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Muranga Kakamega Homeboyz
Matches Played 25 25
Wins 11 7
Draws 4 10
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.32 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Premier League
Muranga vs Kakamega Homeboyz
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Premier League
Kakamega Homeboyz vs Muranga
1:1
Feb 19, 2025 Premier League
Kakamega Homeboyz vs Muranga
3:1
Nov 10, 2024 Premier League
Muranga vs Kakamega Homeboyz
0:2
Jun 19, 2024 Premier League
Kakamega Homeboyz vs Muranga
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Muranga Compare

Top Goalscorer Macharia J. I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Kakamega Homeboyz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Muranga 31 / 100
Kakamega Homeboyz 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Muranga Kakamega Homeboyz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Muranga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Muranga's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 25 recent games.

Kakamega Homeboyz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 25 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Muranga remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Muranga VS Kakamega Homeboyz
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Muranga

(Home)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
24 May
Bidco United
0 : 2
Muranga
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3
Mahia
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0
Kakamega Homeboyz
06 May
Police FC
2 : 1
Muranga
Page 1 of 5

Kakamega Homeboyz

(Away)
31 May
Police FC
1 : 1
Kakamega Homeboyz
23 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 2
Kakamega Homeboyz
16 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
1 : 2
Leopards
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0
Kakamega Homeboyz
03 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
0 : 1
Mahia
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)