Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mushuc Runa vs Dep. Cuenca

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mushuc Runa play Dep. Cuenca in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mushuc Runa averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Dep. Cuenca averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Mushuc Runa won 2, Dep. Cuenca won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Mushuc Runa and 1.13 for Dep. Cuenca. This points to a Dep. Cuenca double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Mushuc Runa
25%
Draws
40%
Dep. Cuenca
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Dep. Cuenca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Mushuc Runa picked up more points recently compared to Dep. Cuenca.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Mushuc Runa Clean Sheet 21%
Dep. Cuenca Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mushuc Runa Dep. Cuenca
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 9 14
Draws 10 6
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.29 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Dep. Cuenca
4:1
Jun 28, 2025 Liga Pro
Dep. Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa
1:0
Mar 1, 2025 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Dep. Cuenca
3:1
Oct 19, 2024 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Dep. Cuenca
1:1
Apr 27, 2024 Liga Pro
Dep. Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mushuc Runa Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemos L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ibarra R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Dep. Cuenca Compare

Top Goalscorer Klimowicz M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mushuc Runa 36 / 100
Dep. Cuenca 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mushuc Runa Dep. Cuenca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dep. Cuenca or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mushuc Runa attacking → ← attacking Dep. Cuenca

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mushuc Runa scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Dep. Cuenca let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Mushuc Runa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Dep. Cuenca lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 48
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle17131336:1840
2Barcelona SC1785420:1329
3Aucas1785420:1629
4LDU Quito1783619:1427
5Dep. Cuenca1783618:1927
6U. Catolica1775528:1726
7Tecnico U.1772819:1723
8Macara1765616:1823
9Emelec1765614:1723
10Orense1764722:2422
11Mushuc Runa1756622:2321
12Leones del Norte1755718:1920
13Guayaquil City1754814:2019
14Delfin174589:1617
15Libertad1745817:2517
16Manta1733117:2312