Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mushuc Runa vs Libertad

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
Our Tip

Match Events

51'
Biojo R.
63'
Sub
Chere A. In: Caicedo E.
Out: Chere A.
63'
Sub
Coronel D. In: Orejuela C.
Out: Coronel D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Mushuc Runa and Libertad finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Libertad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Mushuc Runa
35%
Draws
35%
Libertad
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Libertad carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Mushuc Runa Clean Sheet 20%
Libertad Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mushuc Runa Libertad
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 10 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 27, 2026 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
0:2
Apr 7, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Mushuc Runa
2:2
Aug 9, 2025 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
1:2
Apr 19, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Mushuc Runa
2:1
Sep 26, 2024 Copa Ecuador
Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mushuc Runa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Pineda Arana X. E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Orejuela C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mushuc Runa 32 / 100
Libertad 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mushuc Runa Libertad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mushuc Runa's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Libertad has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Mushuc Runa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mushuc Runa VS Libertad
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mushuc Runa

(Home)
20 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 1
Mushuc Runa
12 Sept
Guayaquil City
3 : 1
Mushuc Runa
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
02 Sept
LDU Quito
0 : 0
Mushuc Runa
28 Aug
Mushuc Runa
1 : 0
Delfin
Page 1 of 6

Libertad

(Away)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)