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Stadium Background

Nacao vs Blumenau

Brazil Brazil

Copa Santa Catarina
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 5-1. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Nacao at 0.93 goals for, 1.63 against; Blumenau at 1.62 for, 0.92 against. Head-to-head, Nacao have won 1 to Blumenau's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Jul 22, 2026, ending 0:2. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.38, favoring Blumenau. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Nacao
35%
Draws
32%
Blumenau
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Blumenau carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 32% — that's where the model lands on Blumenau taking it.
  • Blumenau arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Blumenau, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Nacao Clean Sheet 17%
Blumenau Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao Blumenau
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 5 16
Draws 11 9
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 0.93 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.92
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Catarinense 2
Blumenau vs Nacao
0:2
Jun 3, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Blumenau
0:6
Sep 28, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Blumenau vs Nacao
5:1
Sep 23, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Nacao vs Blumenau
0:2
Jul 12, 2025 Catarinense 2
Blumenau vs Nacao
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao 20 / 100
Blumenau 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao Blumenau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Blumenau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Nacao scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Blumenau has conceded goals in 73% of their last 37 outings.

Difficult form: Blumenau registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacao VS Blumenau
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacao

(Home)
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1
Nacao
23 Sept
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
3 : 3
Nacao
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Figueirense
1 : 0
Nacao
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
Page 1 of 6

Blumenau

(Away)
26 Sept
Blumenau
1 : 1
Marcilio Dias
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1
CA Metropolitano
15 Sept
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
2 : 2
Blumenau
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0
Blumenau
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1
Santa Catarina
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marcilio Dias 5 3 1 1 15:9 10
2 Figueirense 4 3 1 0 5:2 10
3 Hercilio Luz 4 3 0 1 11:8 9
4 Joinville 5 3 0 2 10:8 9
5 Santa Catarina 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
6 CA Metropolitano 4 1 0 3 5:10 3
7 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 4 0 3 1 7:8 3
8 Blumenau 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
9 Nacao 5 0 2 3 6:12 2
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs)