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Stadium Background

Nacao vs Caravaggio

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Nacao Logo

Nacao

2 - 2
FT
Caravaggio Logo

Caravaggio

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Kaio Almeida Batista H.
66' Event
Gustavo Modesto
69' Event
Joao Castro
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Nacao and Caravaggio finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Nacao
35%
Draws
55%
Caravaggio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Nacao haven't matched Caravaggio's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Caravaggio's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Nacao Clean Sheet 12%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao Caravaggio
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 5 14
Draws 11 6
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.93 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Caravaggio
2:2
May 27, 2026 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Nacao
4:1
Aug 5, 2023 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Caravaggio
1:0
Jul 30, 2023 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Nacao
1:0
Jul 16, 2023 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Nacao
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Modesto
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thiago
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaio Almeida Batista H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joao Castro
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao 10 / 100
Caravaggio 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao Caravaggio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaggio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Nacao scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Caravaggio has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Nacao remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacao VS Caravaggio
1 Goals Scored 2.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacao

(Home)
23 Sept
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
3 : 3
Nacao
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Figueirense
1 : 0
Nacao
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
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Caravaggio

(Away)
25 Jul
Caravaggio
3 : 1
Gremio Juventus
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)