Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacao vs Fluminense-SC

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

63' Event
Gustavo Modesto
82' Event
Giehl N. F.
90' Event
da Silva G.

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Nacao and Fluminense-SC finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fluminense-SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Nacao
30%
Draws
41%
Fluminense-SC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fluminense-SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Fluminense-SC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Nacao are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Nacao Clean Sheet 68%
Fluminense-SC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao Fluminense-SC
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 5 11
Draws 11 8
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.86 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Fluminense-SC
1:2
May 16, 2026 Catarinense 2
Fluminense-SC vs Nacao
1:1
Jun 22, 2025 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Fluminense-SC
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Modesto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Fluminense-SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Giehl N. F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader da Silva G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao 68 / 100
Fluminense-SC 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao Fluminense-SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Fluminense-SC conceded in 84% of 31 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Nacao scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Recent resilience: Nacao stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacao VS Fluminense-SC
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacao

(Home)
12 Sept
Figueirense
1 : 0
Nacao
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2
Nacao
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
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Fluminense-SC

(Away)
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
22 Jul
Fluminense-SC
2 : 1
Tubarao
19 Jul
Gremio Juventus
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
15 Jul
Fluminense-SC
1 : 1
Guarani de Palhoca
12 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Fluminense-SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)