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Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Amazonense Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith, Manaus
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Hernane
29'
Sub
Fabinho In: Gabriel Domingos
Out: Fabinho
38'
Erick Varao

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
35%
Draws
37%
Amazonas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Amazonas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Nacional-AM (Manaus) carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Nacional-AM (Manaus) have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Nacional-AM (Manaus), who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Clean Sheet 68%
Amazonas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional-AM (Manaus) Amazonas
Matches Played 41 39
Wins 23 15
Draws 10 10
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.49 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.08
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas
2:1
Mar 6, 2026 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas
3:0
Feb 8, 2026 Amazonense
Amazonas vs Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1:0
Jan 17, 2026 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas
1:1
Apr 2, 2025 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional-AM (Manaus) Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernane
1 Goals
Assists Leader Renanzinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Amazonas Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcelo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional-AM (Manaus) 42 / 100
Amazonas 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Amazonas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional-AM (Manaus) found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (41 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Nacional-AM (Manaus) has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Amazonas conceded in 59% of 39 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Nacional-AM (Manaus) VS Amazonas
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional-AM (Manaus)

(Home)
03 Sept
CSA
0 : 0
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
28 Aug
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
3 : 1
CSA
16 Aug
ABC
1 : 0
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
08 Aug
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 2
ABC
25 Jul
Iguatu
1 : 2
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
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Amazonas

(Away)
29 Aug
Amazonas
2 : 2
Ypiranga FC
23 Aug
Brusque
1 : 1
Amazonas
15 Aug
Amazonas
0 : 0
Botafogo PB
09 Aug
Maringa FC
0 : 3
Amazonas
26 Jul
Amazonas
2 : 1
Paysandu PA
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 2
Amazonas 1