Sport Picks

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Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas

Brazil Brazil

Amazonense Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith, Manaus
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Hernane
29'
Sub
Fabinho In: Gabriel Domingos
Out: Fabinho
38'
Erick Varao

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Nacional-AM (Manaus) advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
6%
Draws
4%
Amazonas
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nacional-AM (Manaus)

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Nacional-AM (Manaus) carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Nacional-AM (Manaus) are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Nacional-AM (Manaus) have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Nacional-AM (Manaus), who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Clean Sheet 68%
Amazonas Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional-AM (Manaus) Amazonas
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 10
Draws 7 7
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.13 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas
2:1
Mar 6, 2026 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas
3:0
Feb 8, 2026 Amazonense
Amazonas vs Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1:0
Jan 17, 2026 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas
1:1
Apr 2, 2025 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Amazonas
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional-AM (Manaus) Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernane
1 Goals
Assists Leader Renanzinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Amazonas Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcelo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional-AM (Manaus) 95 / 100
Amazonas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Amazonas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Nacional-AM (Manaus) remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Nacional-AM (Manaus)'s goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Amazonas has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacional-AM (Manaus) VS Amazonas
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional-AM (Manaus)

(Home)
18 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 1
Iguatu
12 Jul
Capital
1 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0
Capital
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0
Araguaina
21 Jun
Araguaina
0 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
Page 1 of 6

Amazonas

(Away)
12 Jul
Internacional de Limeira
1 : 0
Amazonas
07 Jul
Amazonas
0 : 2
Itabaiana
30 Jun
Volta Redonda
3 : 0
Amazonas
21 Jun
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1 : 1
Amazonas
13 Jun
Amazonas
1 : 0
Anapolis
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Nacional-AM (Manaus)2
Amazonas1