Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Paysandu PA

Brazil Brazil

Copa Norte Arena da Amazonia, Manaus
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Caio Mello
27' Event
Kleiton Pego
51' Event
Thayllon

AI Match Summary

Paysandu PA in this Copa Norte tie, finishing 2-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
22%
Draws
18%
Paysandu PA
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Nacional-AM (Manaus)

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Paysandu PA average 1.88 goals a game right now, well clear of Nacional-AM (Manaus)'s 1.25.
  • Win probability leans Nacional-AM (Manaus)'s way, sitting at 60%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Paysandu PA, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Clean Sheet 68%
Paysandu PA Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional-AM (Manaus) Paysandu PA
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 17
Draws 7 4
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.25 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2026 Copa Norte
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Paysandu PA
2:4
May 20, 2026 Copa Norte
Paysandu PA vs Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1:0
Apr 9, 2026 Copa Norte
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Paysandu PA
7:0
Aug 20, 2019 Copa Verde
Paysandu PA vs Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0:0
Aug 8, 2019 Copa Verde
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Paysandu PA
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional-AM (Manaus) Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaio Wilker
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Paysandu PA Compare

Top Goalscorer Caio Mello
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kleiton Pego
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional-AM (Manaus) 68 / 100
Paysandu PA 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Paysandu PA

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paysandu PA has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Nacional-AM (Manaus) remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Nacional-AM (Manaus) scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Nacional-AM (Manaus) VS Paysandu PA
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional-AM (Manaus)

(Home)
18 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 1
Iguatu
12 Jul
Capital
1 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0
Capital
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0
Araguaina
21 Jun
Araguaina
0 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
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Paysandu PA

(Away)
12 Jul
Paysandu PA
3 : 2
Guarani
05 Jul
Ypiranga FC
1 : 0
Paysandu PA
27 Jun
Paysandu PA
1 : 3
Santa Cruz
21 Jun
Maranhao
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
14 Jun
Paysandu PA
1 : 2
Internacional de Limeira
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Nacional-AM (Manaus)2
Porto Velho1
Aguia De Maraba1
Paysandu PA5
Final
Nacional-AM (Manaus)2
Paysandu PA5