Sport Picks
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio Arsenio Erico, Asunción 
Match Events
7'
7'
Benitez H. A.
(Penalty)
20'
20'
Cardozo Lucena A.
29'
29'
Aguilar G.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Libertad Asuncion
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Libertad Asuncion carry the better recent record into this one.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Nacional Asuncion taking it.
- Libertad Asuncion arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nacional Asuncion, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Nacional Asuncion have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 20%
Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Libertad Asuncion |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 11 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 2, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion
3:0
May 24, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion
2:1
Mar 18, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion
3:1
Jul 19, 2025 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nacional Asuncion Compare
Top Goalscorer Meza L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Valdez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Libertad Asuncion Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nacional Asuncion 42 / 100
Libertad Asuncion 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nacional Asuncion Libertad Asuncion
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Nacional Asuncion's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Libertad Asuncion let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Nacional Asuncion stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nacional Asuncion VS Libertad Asuncion
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Nacional Asuncion
(Home) 06 Oct
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
18 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 2 de Mayo
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
18 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 2 de Mayo
02 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 Libertad Asuncion
24 Aug
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 0 Sp. Luqueno
09 Aug
Nacional Asuncion
0 : 0 Guarani
Page 1 of 3
Libertad Asuncion
(Away) 05 Oct
Recoleta
1 : 2 Libertad Asuncion
28 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
0 : 1 Olimpia Asuncion
23 Sept
Fernando de la Mora
1 : 2 Libertad Asuncion
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
11 Sept
2 de Mayo
0 : 2 Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 6
05 Oct
Recoleta
1 : 2 Libertad Asuncion
23 Sept
Fernando de la Mora
1 : 2 Libertad Asuncion
11 Sept
2 de Mayo
0 : 2 Libertad Asuncion
02 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 Libertad Asuncion
30 Aug
Cerro Porteno
1 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 26 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 16:13 | 25 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 20:8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Guarani | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 14:10 | 21 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 15:15 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:14 | 17 |
| 9 | Sp. Luqueno | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 14:24 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15:24 | 12 |
| 11 | Recoleta | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:26 | 8 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 4:22 | 3 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
