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Nacional de Muriae vs Guarani-MG - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Danilinho
32' Event
Danilinho
63' Event
Pedro Felipe

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro 2 2025 game between Nacional de Muriae and Guarani-MG finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nacional de Muriae.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Nacional de Muriae
20%
Draws
33%
Guarani-MG
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nacional de Muriae

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Guarani-MG come out ahead of Nacional de Muriae on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Nacional de Muriae's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 53.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Nacional de Muriae Clean Sheet 68%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional de Muriae Guarani-MG
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 13
Draws 11 7
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.28 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2025 Mineiro 2
Nacional de Muriae vs Guarani-MG
2:1
May 25, 2025 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Nacional de Muriae
2:0
Jul 17, 2021 Mineiro 2
Nacional de Muriae vs Guarani-MG
3:0
Oct 24, 2020 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Nacional de Muriae
0:3
Mar 19, 2018 Mineiro 2
Nacional de Muriae vs Guarani-MG
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional de Muriae Compare

Top Goalscorer Danilinho
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Guarani-MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Felipe
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional de Muriae 50 / 100
Guarani-MG 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional de Muriae Guarani-MG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional de Muriae Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Nacional de Muriae's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Guarani-MG let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Nacional de Muriae remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacional de Muriae VS Guarani-MG
1.14 Goals Scored 0.75
0.86 Goals Conceded 1
57% Over 1.5 50%
57% Over 2.5 38%
14% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional de Muriae

(Home)
05 Oct
Nacional de Muriae
2 : 1
Nova Lavras
25 Sept
Inter de Minas
0 : 1
Nacional de Muriae
21 Sept
Nacional de Muriae
3 : 0
Santarritense
21 Jun
Valeriodoce
2 : 2
Nacional de Muriae
14 Jun
Nacional de Muriae
0 : 3
North Esporte Clube
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Guarani-MG

(Away)
12 Jul
Guarani-MG
2 : 4
Boa
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Mamore
2 : 2
Guarani-MG
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Uberaba
2 : 1
Guarani-MG
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Patrocinense 10 5 2 3 7:6 17
2 URT 10 4 4 2 11:8 16
3 Mamore 10 3 4 3 11:11 13
4 Uberaba 10 2 5 3 11:11 11
5 Caldense 10 2 5 3 9:10 11
6 Varginha 10 2 4 4 9:12 10
Promotion - Mineiro 2 2025 (Final Stage)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ipatinga 10 5 2 3 11:10 17
2 North Esporte Clube 10 4 4 2 17:13 16
3 Democrata SL 10 3 4 3 9:8 13
4 Valeriodoce 10 3 4 3 12:12 13
5 Guarani-MG 10 3 3 4 10:10 12
6 Nacional de Muriae 10 2 3 5 10:16 9
Promotion - Mineiro 2 2025 (Final Stage)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2025 (Main)