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Nacional MG vs CRAC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Série D 2012
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Nacional MG advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Nacional MG
20%
Draws
46%
CRAC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CRAC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nacional MG come out ahead of CRAC on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Nacional MG have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Nacional MG, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Nacional MG Clean Sheet 20%
CRAC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional MG CRAC
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 10
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.25 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.44 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2012 Serie D
CRAC vs Nacional MG
1:0
Sep 2, 2012 Serie D
Nacional MG vs CRAC
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional MG 32 / 100
CRAC 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional MG CRAC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional MG scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

CRAC let in goals in 53% of their last 32 matches.

Recent resilience: Nacional MG stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS CRAC
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional MG

(Home)
16 Mar
Villa Nova AC
3 : 1
Nacional MG
09 Mar
Nacional MG
2 : 0
URT
05 Mar
Nacional MG
1 : 4
Cruzeiro
01 Mar
America MG
2 : 1
Nacional MG
25 Feb
Nacional MG
1 : 0
Tombense
Page 1 of 7

CRAC

(Away)
12 Jul
Treze PB
2 : 0
CRAC
04 Jul
CRAC
2 : 1
Treze PB
27 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
CRAC
21 Jun
CRAC
1 : 0
Tombense
14 Jun
CRAC
1 : 1
Ivinhema
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Mogi Mirim 2
CA Metropolitano 2
SE Juventude 3
Cianorte 4
Nacional MG 2
CRAC 2
Ceilandia 1
Friburguense 2
Campinense 2
CSA 1
Sousa 0
Baraunas 3
Mixto 3
Remo 2
Vilhena 3
Sampaio Correa 6
Quarter-finals
Mogi Mirim 4
Cianorte 3
CRAC 3
Friburguense 3
Campinense 1
Baraunas 3
Mixto 1
Sampaio Correa 1
Semi-finals
Mogi Mirim 1
CRAC 3
Baraunas 1
Sampaio Correa 2
Final
CRAC 1
Sampaio Correa 3