Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacional PR vs Patriotas

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Nacional PR
30%
Draws
41%
Patriotas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Patriotas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Nacional PR haven't matched Patriotas's recent run of results.
  • Patriotas are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Patriotas arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Nacional PR, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Nacional PR Clean Sheet 15%
Patriotas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional PR Patriotas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 11 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.23 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Paranaense 2
Patriotas vs Nacional PR
1:0
May 2, 2026 Paranaense 2
Nacional PR vs Patriotas
0:0
Mar 28, 2026 Paranaense 2
Patriotas vs Nacional PR
2:0
Jun 21, 2025 Paranaense 2
Patriotas vs Nacional PR
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 Paranaense 2
Nacional PR vs Patriotas
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional PR 27 / 100
Patriotas 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional PR Patriotas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Patriotas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nacional PR scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Patriotas has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Nacional PR has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Nacional PR VS Patriotas
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional PR

(Home)
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Laranja Mecanica
0 : 1
Nacional PR
18 Apr
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Batel
12 Apr
Nacional PR
1 : 4
Paranavai-PR
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Patriotas

(Away)
24 May
Patriotas
0 : 2
Paranavai-PR
16 May
Paranavai-PR
1 : 2
Patriotas
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Parana
2 : 1
Patriotas
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Parana 8
Toledo 1
Araucaria 6
Rio Branco PR 2
Patriotas 1
Nacional PR 0
Laranja Mecanica 1
Paranavai-PR 2
Semi-finals
Parana 4
Araucaria 1
Patriotas 2
Paranavai-PR 3
Final
Parana 1
Paranavai-PR 2