Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacional SP vs Lemense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Caua

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Nacional SP and Lemense finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lemense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Nacional SP
30%
Draws
16%
Lemense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nacional SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lemense come out ahead of Nacional SP on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Nacional SP's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 68%
Lemense Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional SP Lemense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 8 7
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 0.83 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2026 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Lemense
0:1
Feb 23, 2019 Paulista A2
Nacional SP vs Lemense
2:2
Mar 15, 2017 Paulista A3
Nacional SP vs Lemense
1:2
Mar 27, 2016 Paulista A3
Lemense vs Nacional SP
1:1
Feb 11, 2015 Paulista A3
Lemense vs Nacional SP
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional SP Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Lemense Compare

Top Goalscorer Caua
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional SP 95 / 100
Lemense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional SP Lemense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional SP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lemense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Nacional SP stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Lemense registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacional SP VS Lemense
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional SP

(Home)
04 Apr
Nacional SP
0 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
Page 1 of 6

Lemense

(Away)
18 Apr
Inter de Bebedouro
2 : 0
Lemense
11 Apr
Lemense
0 : 2
Inter de Bebedouro
04 Apr
Lemense
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
28 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
Lemense
25 Mar
Lemense
0 : 0
Jabaquara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)