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Nacional SP W vs Portuguesa W

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Women 2010
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nacional SP W play Portuguesa W in the Paulista Women 2010. Portuguesa W are favorites here. Recently, Nacional SP W averaged 0.67 goals scored and 3.27 conceded. Portuguesa W averaged 1.25 goals scored and 2.7 conceded. In past meetings, Nacional SP W won 0, Portuguesa W won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 10, 2021 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Nacional SP W and 1.98 for Portuguesa W. This points to a Portuguesa W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Nacional SP W
15%
Draws
57%
Portuguesa W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Portuguesa W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Nacional SP W picked up more points recently compared to Portuguesa W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.98 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Nacional SP W Clean Sheet 10%
Portuguesa W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 85%
Second Half Goal 89%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional SP W Portuguesa W
Matches Played 30 44
Wins 5 11
Draws 4 6
Losses 21 27
Goals Scored 0.67 1.25
Goals Conceded 3.27 2.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.20 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2021 Paulista Women
Portuguesa W vs Nacional SP W
3:2
Aug 21, 2010 Paulista Women
Nacional SP W vs Portuguesa W
0:3
Jun 5, 2010 Paulista Women
Portuguesa W vs Nacional SP W
5:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional SP W 27 / 100
Portuguesa W 53 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional SP W Portuguesa W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portuguesa W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Portuguesa W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.4%
1.39
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nacional SP W attacking → ← attacking Portuguesa W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional SP W scored in 33% of their last 30 games.

Portuguesa W let in goals in 86% of their last 44 matches.

Games between these two average 4.33 goals.

Nacional SP W went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Portuguesa W lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

19 Points in last 5 39
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
3.20 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Rio Preto W16114183:937
2Ferroviaria W16113264:1036
3Francana W16102446:1332
4Botucatu W16102444:1232
5Sao Judas Tadeu W1694335:1831
6Marilia W1663750:3621
7Jaguariuna W1621137:967
8Sao Bento W16201414:796
9Paulista W1611149:794
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Santos W16160067:348
2Sao Jose W16140250:742
3Sao Caetano W16101540:2331
4Portuguesa W1691640:2028
5CA Juventus W1682619:2326
6Palmeiras W16421025:3514
7Nacional SP W16331012:4612
8Taboao da Serra W16301315:489
9Sao Bernardo W16011514:771