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Naesby vs Holstebro Prediction & H2H Stats

Denmark Denmark

3rd Division ALPI Arena Naesby, Odense
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Naesby host Holstebro in the 3rd Division. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Holstebro have shipped 2.41 goals a game lately, while Naesby have conceded 1.4 and scored 2.23. Past meetings favor Holstebro slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 3, 2024, ending 0:2. xG projections (2.13 - 1.69) back Naesby to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Naesby
15%
Draws
26%
Holstebro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Naesby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Naesby come out ahead of Holstebro on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Naesby's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Naesby Clean Sheet 13%
Holstebro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naesby Holstebro
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 11
Draws 4 3
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 2.23 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.4 2.41
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 3, 2024 3rd Division
Holstebro vs Naesby
0:2
Aug 10, 2024 3rd Division
Naesby vs Holstebro
0:2
Mar 28, 2024 3rd Division
Holstebro vs Naesby
1:0
Sep 30, 2023 3rd Division
Naesby vs Holstebro
1:2
Mar 12, 2023 3rd Division
Holstebro vs Naesby
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naesby 84 / 100
Holstebro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naesby Holstebro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Naesby Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naesby found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Holstebro has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Naesby stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Naesby VS Holstebro
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Naesby

(Home)
26 Sept
Ringsted
1 : 2
Naesby
19 Sept
Naesby
1 : 1
Helsingor
16 Sept
Naesby
2 : 3
Horsens
13 Sept
ASA Aarhus
1 : 0
Naesby
05 Sept
Naesby
4 : 3
Horsholm-Usserod
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Holstebro

(Away)
26 Sept
Holstebro
1 : 3
Ishoj IF
19 Sept
Sundby
2 : 0
Holstebro
13 Sept
Holstebro
3 : 2
BK Frem
05 Sept
Holstebro
1 : 2
Vanlose
28 Aug
ASA Aarhus
4 : 0
Holstebro
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Holbaek 9 6 1 2 24:17 19
2 Bronshoj 9 5 3 1 17:9 18
3 Helsingor 9 5 2 2 17:11 17
4 Vanlose 9 4 4 1 15:9 16
5 ASA Aarhus 9 5 1 3 13:12 16
6 Naesby 9 4 2 3 16:14 14
7 Holstebro 9 4 1 4 16:18 13
8 Sundby 9 3 1 5 14:15 10
9 Horsholm-Usserod 9 2 3 4 17:18 9
10 BK Frem 9 2 2 5 16:18 8
11 Ishoj IF 9 2 1 6 7:17 7
12 Ringsted 9 1 1 7 11:25 4
Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group)
Relegation - 3rd Division (Relegation Group)