Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Naft Missan vs Al-Karma

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Salam M.
90' Event
Abdelkader A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Naft Missan
30%
Draws
51%
Al-Karma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al-Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Naft Missan haven't matched Al-Karma's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Al-Karma's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Naft Missan Clean Sheet 23%
Al-Karma Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naft Missan Al-Karma
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 11 15
Draws 10 12
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.32 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.29 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al-Karma
1:1
Feb 21, 2026 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Naft Missan
3:0
Feb 20, 2025 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al-Karma
3:2
Dec 6, 2024 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Naft Missan
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naft Missan Compare

Top Goalscorer Salam M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Karma Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naft Missan 10 / 100
Al-Karma 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naft Missan Al-Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Karma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.25 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Naft Missan scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Al-Karma conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Naft Missan remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Naft Missan VS Al-Karma
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Naft Missan

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
29 Aug
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Naft Missan
Page 1 of 7

Al-Karma

(Away)
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
26 Aug
Al Kahraba
1 : 1
Al-Karma
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)