Sport Picks

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Naft Missan vs Al Naft

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Naft Missan play Al Naft in the Stars League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Naft Missan averaged 1.34 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Al Naft averaged 0.69 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Naft Missan won 3, Al Naft won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Naft Missan and 1.00 for Al Naft. This points to a Naft Missan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Naft Missan
35%
Draws
28%
Al Naft
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Naft Missan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Naft Missan picked up more points recently compared to Al Naft.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Naft Missan Clean Sheet 23%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naft Missan Al Naft
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 8 11
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.34 0.69
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Naft
3:0
Jan 23, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Naft Missan
1:2
May 18, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Naft Missan
0:0
Oct 6, 2024 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Naft
0:0
May 5, 2024 Stars League
Al Naft vs Naft Missan
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naft Missan Compare

Top Goalscorer Gueye Dieme D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Al Naft Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naft Missan 38 / 100
Al Naft 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naft Missan Al Naft

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Naft Missan or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Naft Missan attacking → ← attacking Al Naft

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naft Missan scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Al Naft let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Naft Missan went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Al Naft lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 35
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966