Sport Picks
Match Events
17'
17'
Gueye Dieme D.
(Penalty)
50'
50'
Gueye Dieme D.
66'
66'
Ali M.
AI Match Summary
The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Naft Missan and Al Najaf finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naft Missan.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
30%
41%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Najaf
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Naft Missan come out ahead of Al Najaf on wins alone.
- Model gives Naft Missan a 42% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Naft Missan have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Naft Missan Clean Sheet 20%
Al Najaf Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Naft Missan | Al Najaf |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 4 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 10 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 1.27 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.90 | 1.04 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 24, 2026 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Najaf
2:1
Jan 14, 2026 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Naft Missan
2:4
Jun 28, 2025 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Najaf
3:1
Nov 26, 2024 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Naft Missan
4:1
Jul 5, 2024 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Najaf
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Naft Missan Compare
Top Goalscorer Gueye Dieme D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.46
Avg xA / game 0.95
Al Najaf Compare
Top Goalscorer Ali M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Naft Missan 42 / 100
Al Najaf 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Naft Missan Al Najaf
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Al Najaf has conceded goals in 93% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 4.20 goals.
Naft Missan scored in 67% of their last 30 games.
Solid form: Naft Missan remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Naft Missan VS Al Najaf
1.63 Goals Scored 1.33
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.17
75% Over 1.5 83%
38% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 33%
Recent Form & Match History
Naft Missan
(Home) 17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2 Naft Missan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0 Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1 Naft Missan
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2 Newroz
29 Aug
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1 Naft Missan
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0 Al Talaba
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2 Newroz
20 Aug
Naft Missan
0 : 0 Al Naft
14 Aug
Naft Missan
0 : 0 Al Golan
28 May
Naft Missan
0 : 2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Page 1 of 3
Al Najaf
(Away) 01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0 Al Zawraa
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2 Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1 Al Najaf
20 May
Al Najaf
2 : 5 Al Karkh
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1 Al Najaf
Page 1 of 6
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2 Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1 Al Najaf
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1 Al Najaf
08 Apr
Al Talaba
2 : 1 Al Najaf
31 Mar
Al Gharraf
1 : 0 Al Najaf
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 62:28 | 89 |
| 2 | Al Shorta | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 69:32 | 80 |
| 3 | Erbil | 38 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 59:32 | 79 |
| 4 | Al Zawraa | 38 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 50:32 | 66 |
| 5 | Al-Karma | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 53:26 | 65 |
| 6 | Al Talaba | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 53:38 | 65 |
| 7 | Al Karkh | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51:41 | 60 |
| 8 | Newroz | 38 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 48:47 | 54 |
| 9 | Zakho | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 49:45 | 53 |
| 10 | Duhok | 38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 44:45 | 50 |
| 11 | Diyala | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40:42 | 49 |
| 12 | Al Naft | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 33:34 | 48 |
| 13 | Al Mosul | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 46:49 | 47 |
| 14 | Al Gharraf | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 40:43 | 44 |
| 15 | Naft Missan | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 48:57 | 43 |
| 16 | Al Minaa | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 38:47 | 40 |
| 17 | Al Kahraba | 37 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 44:56 | 38 |
| 18 | Baghdad | 38 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 47:68 | 37 |
| 19 | Al Najaf | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 31:68 | 23 |
| 20 | Al-Qassim | 38 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 21:96 | 6 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
