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Stadium Background

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
Nagoya Grampus Logo

Nagoya Grampus

3 - 0
FT
Kyoto Logo

Kyoto

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Yamagishi Y.
Assist: Nakayama K.
28'
Henrique Trevisan
29' Event
Yamagishi Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nagoya Grampus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Nagoya Grampus
15%
Draws
57%
Kyoto
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kyoto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Nagoya Grampus's 1.65 goals per match outpaces what Kyoto have produced (1.33).
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Nagoya Grampus Clean Sheet 15%
Kyoto Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nagoya Grampus Kyoto
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 1 2
Losses 18 16
Goals Scored 1.65 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.94 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto
3:0
Mar 22, 2026 J1 League
Kyoto vs Nagoya Grampus
2:1
Aug 10, 2025 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto
1:2
May 11, 2025 J1 League
Kyoto vs Nagoya Grampus
1:1
Aug 7, 2024 J1 League
Kyoto vs Nagoya Grampus
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nagoya Grampus Compare

Top Goalscorer Yamagishi Y.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Kyoto Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nagoya Grampus 35 / 100
Kyoto 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nagoya Grampus Kyoto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kyoto Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nagoya Grampus scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Kyoto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Away concern: Kyoto has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nagoya Grampus VS Kyoto
1 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nagoya Grampus

(Home)
29 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 3
Nagoya Grampus
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3
Machida Zelvia
02 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 7

Kyoto

(Away)
23 Sept
Kyoto
1 : 0
Fujieda MYFC
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
15 Sept
Daejeon
1 : 0
Kyoto
11 Sept
Kyoto
2 : 3
Kashiwa Reysol
06 Sept
FC Tokyo
2 : 0
Kyoto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)