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Nairobi United vs APS Bomet - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Fri, Sep 11, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nairobi United host APS Bomet in the Premier League. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Recent numbers: Nairobi United at 1.28 goals for, 1 against; APS Bomet at 1.08 for, 0.92 against. Past meetings favor Nairobi United slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 11, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.32 - 0.56) back Nairobi United to edge this. Under 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Nairobi United
30%
Draws
43%
APS Bomet
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: APS Bomet

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Nairobi United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Nairobi United are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Nairobi United Clean Sheet 20%
APS Bomet Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nairobi United APS Bomet
Matches Played 25 24
Wins 10 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.28 1.08
Goals Conceded 1 0.92
Expected Goals (xG) 0.32 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Premier League
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet
0:0
Mar 29, 2026 Premier League
APS Bomet vs Nairobi United
0:0
Feb 4, 2026 Premier League
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet
1:2
Mar 16, 2025 Super League
APS Bomet vs Nairobi United
0:0
Nov 17, 2024 Super League
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nairobi United 42 / 100
APS Bomet 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nairobi United APS Bomet

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nairobi United found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (25 games).

Recent resilience: Nairobi United stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

APS Bomet's defensive record shows goals conceded in 54% of 24 matches.

These sides typically produce 0.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Nairobi United VS APS Bomet
0.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.25
25% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nairobi United

(Home)
31 May
Mahia
0 : 1
Nairobi United
24 May
Nairobi United
0 : 0
Police FC
16 May
Nairobi United
2 : 2
Posta Rangers
10 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 0
Nairobi United
06 May
Nairobi United
1 : 0
Tusker
Page 1 of 5

APS Bomet

(Away)
31 May
Tusker
1 : 1
APS Bomet
24 May
APS Bomet
2 : 1
Leopards
20 May
Bandari
0 : 2
APS Bomet
10 May
Mathare United
0 : 2
APS Bomet
06 May
APS Bomet
1 : 0
KCB
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mathare United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Ulinzi Stars 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Tusker 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mahia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Leopards 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 KCB 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Posta Rangers 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Bandari 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Kakamega Homeboyz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Police FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Migori 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Shabana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 APS Bomet 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Muranga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Mombasa United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Mara Sugar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Nairobi United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 3K FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)