Sport Picks
Match Events
14'
14'
Machaka O.
28'
28'
Karamor M.
40'
40'
Machaka O.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
52%
35%
13%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nairobi United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Nairobi United lately — more wins on the board than Kakamega Homeboyz.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Nairobi United have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Nairobi United Clean Sheet 68%
Kakamega Homeboyz Clean Sheet 21%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nairobi United | Kakamega Homeboyz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 25 | 25 |
| Wins | 8 | 7 |
| Draws | 8 | 10 |
| Losses | 9 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.12 | 1.36 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.04 | 1.16 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 8, 2026 Premier League
Nairobi United vs Kakamega Homeboyz
2:2
Oct 11, 2025 Premier League
Kakamega Homeboyz vs Nairobi United
0:2
May 1, 2025 FKF Mozzart Bet Cup
Nairobi United vs Kakamega Homeboyz
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nairobi United Compare
Top Goalscorer Karamor M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Kizza M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Kakamega Homeboyz Compare
Top Goalscorer Machaka O.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nairobi United 41 / 100
Kakamega Homeboyz 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nairobi United Kakamega Homeboyz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nairobi United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kakamega Homeboyz let in goals in 80% of their last 25 matches.
Nairobi United scored in 68% of their last 25 games.
These sides typically produce 2.67 goals when they meet.
Nairobi United went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nairobi United VS Kakamega Homeboyz
0.5 Goals Scored 0.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
25% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Nairobi United
(Home) 31 May
Mahia
0 : 1 Nairobi United
24 May
Nairobi United
0 : 0 Police FC
16 May
Nairobi United
2 : 2 Posta Rangers
10 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 0 Nairobi United
06 May
Nairobi United
1 : 0 Tusker
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24 May
Nairobi United
0 : 0 Police FC
16 May
Nairobi United
2 : 2 Posta Rangers
06 May
Nairobi United
1 : 0 Tusker
03 May
Nairobi United
0 : 1 KCB
08 Apr
Nairobi United
2 : 2 Kakamega Homeboyz
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Kakamega Homeboyz
(Away) 31 May
Police FC
1 : 1 Kakamega Homeboyz
23 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 2 Kakamega Homeboyz
16 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
1 : 2 Leopards
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0 Kakamega Homeboyz
03 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
0 : 1 Mahia
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31 May
Police FC
1 : 1 Kakamega Homeboyz
23 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 2 Kakamega Homeboyz
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0 Kakamega Homeboyz
26 Apr
KCB
1 : 1 Kakamega Homeboyz
18 Apr
Shabana
1 : 0 Kakamega Homeboyz
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 50:22 | 69 |
| 2 | Leopards | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 44:28 | 64 |
| 3 | Police FC | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 31:21 | 55 |
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44:34 | 53 |
| 5 | Shabana | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 35:34 | 52 |
| 6 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 47:37 | 49 |
| 7 | KCB | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 36:37 | 48 |
| 8 | Muranga | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42:41 | 47 |
| 9 | Tusker | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 27:32 | 45 |
| 10 | APS Bomet | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 37:35 | 44 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 30:30 | 44 |
| 12 | Bandari | 34 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 26:26 | 44 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 34:37 | 41 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31:35 | 41 |
| 15 | Posta Rangers | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 31:40 | 40 |
| 16 | Kariobangi Sharks | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 30:33 | 38 |
| 17 | Bidco United | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 19:40 | 27 |
| 18 | Sofapaka | 34 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 19:51 | 19 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)
