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Nantes vs Paris FC

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Kebbal I.
9'
Gory A.
18'
Sub
Machado D. In: Lepenant J.
Out: Machado D.

AI Match Summary

Paris FC in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paris FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Nantes
44%
Draws
20%
Paris FC
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Nantes haven't matched Paris FC's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Nantes Clean Sheet 16%
Paris FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nantes Paris FC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 6 10
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 0.63 2
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Paris FC
1:2
Oct 24, 2025 Ligue 1
Paris FC vs Nantes
1:2
Aug 9, 2025 Club Friendly
Nantes vs Paris FC
2:3
Oct 30, 2019 Coupe de la Ligue
Nantes vs Paris FC
8:0
Mar 2, 1979 Ligue 1
Paris FC vs Nantes
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nantes Compare

Top Goalscorer Abline M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Paris FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Kebbal I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Koleosho L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nantes 36 / 100
Paris FC 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nantes Paris FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

Nantes's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Paris FC conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Nantes went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nantes VS Paris FC
0.63 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nantes

(Home)
18 Jul
Lorient
1 : 0
Nantes
11 Jul
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 5
Nantes
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
08 May
Lens
1 : 0
Nantes
02 May
Nantes
3 : 0
Marseille
Page 1 of 6

Paris FC

(Away)
18 Jul
Paris FC
1 : 0
Reims
17 May
Paris FC
2 : 1
PSG
10 May
Rennes
2 : 1
Paris FC
03 May
Paris FC
4 : 0
Brest
26 Apr
Paris FC
0 : 1
Lille
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)