Sport Picks
Napier City vs Miramar
New Zealand
National League Bluewater Stadium, Napier 
Match Events
1'
1'
Lack S.
18'
18'
Ettema T.
90'
90'
Fenton J.
AI Match Summary
The National League game between Napier City and Miramar finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Napier City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Miramar carry the better recent record into this one.
- 43% — that's where the model lands on Napier City taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 60%
Over 4.5 Goals 27%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Napier City Clean Sheet 10%
Miramar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Napier City | Miramar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 14 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 2.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.17 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.76 | 2.02 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 National League
Napier City vs Miramar
1:1
Jul 7, 2024 Chatham Cup
Napier City vs Miramar
2:1
Oct 15, 2022 National League
Napier City vs Miramar
2:2
May 25, 2003 Football Championship
Napier City vs Miramar
2:1
Mar 23, 2003 Football Championship
Miramar vs Napier City
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Napier City Compare
Top Goalscorer Lack S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Miramar Compare
Top Goalscorer Ettema T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.84
Avg xA / game 1.12
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Napier City 56 / 100
Miramar 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Napier City Miramar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Napier City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Napier City scored in 86% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Miramar conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Napier City has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Napier City VS Miramar
2.14 Goals Scored 2.75
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.38
71% Over 1.5 100%
71% Over 2.5 100%
57% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Napier City
(Home) 16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1 Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5 Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4 Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3 Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3 Napier City
Page 1 of 6
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3 Wellington Olympic
17 Nov
Napier City
0 : 1 Auckland City
01 Nov
Napier City
2 : 1 Cashmere Technical
13 Oct
Napier City
1 : 1 Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Sept
Napier City
4 : 0 Western Springs
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Miramar
(Away) 26 Jul
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1 Miramar
04 Jul
Island Bay
1 : 3 Miramar
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1 Miramar
29 Nov
Miramar
2 : 1 Western Suburbs
23 Nov
Birkenhead
1 : 4 Miramar
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1 Miramar
04 Jul
Island Bay
1 : 3 Miramar
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1 Miramar
23 Nov
Birkenhead
1 : 4 Miramar
09 Nov
Coastal Spirit
1 : 3 Miramar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Wellington Olympic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 | Napier City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 4 | Miramar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 | Wellington Phoenix 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 | Auckland United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 | Ferrymead Bays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 | Eastern Suburbs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 9 | Auckland City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | Auckland FC 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 11 | Birkenhead | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:4 | 0 |
Promotion - National League (Grand Final)
