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Napier City vs Waterside Karori

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Waterside Karori in this Chatham Cup 2023 tie, finishing 0-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Napier City
15%
Draws
39%
Waterside Karori
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Napier City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Waterside Karori haven't matched Napier City's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Napier City a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Napier City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Waterside Karori, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Napier City Clean Sheet 14%
Waterside Karori Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napier City Waterside Karori
Matches Played 39 4
Wins 16 2
Draws 4 0
Losses 19 2
Goals Scored 2.03 2.25
Goals Conceded 2.08 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 9, 2023 Chatham Cup
Napier City vs Waterside Karori
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napier City 48 / 100
Waterside Karori 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napier City Waterside Karori

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napier City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Napier City scored in 85% of their last 39 outings.

Waterside Karori has conceded goals in 75% of their last 4 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Napier City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Napier City VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
2.25 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Napier City

(Home)
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Napier City
Page 1 of 8

Waterside Karori

(Away)
19 Aug
Melville
3 : 1
Waterside Karori
29 Jul
Roslyn Wakari
2 : 5
Waterside Karori
09 Jul
Napier City
0 : 3
Waterside Karori
11 Jul
Western Suburbs
2 : 0
Waterside Karori

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC 0
Melville 2
Western Springs 3
Auckland City 2
Roslyn Wakari 4
Wanaka FC 3
Napier City 0
Waterside Karori 3
Hamilton 3
Ngaruawahia AFC 2
Cashmere Technical 0
Christchurch 3
Petone 0
Wellington Olympic 5
Birkenhead 1
Eastern Suburbs 2
Quarter-finals
Melville 1
Western Springs 0
Roslyn Wakari 2
Waterside Karori 5
Hamilton 0
Christchurch 3
Wellington Olympic 2
Eastern Suburbs 3
Semi-finals
Melville 3
Waterside Karori 1
Christchurch 2
Eastern Suburbs 1
Final
Melville 2
Christchurch 3