Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Napier City vs Western Suburbs

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Napier City in this Chatham Cup 2019 tie, finishing 4-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Napier City
15%
Draws
26%
Western Suburbs
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Napier City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Napier City average 2.03 goals a game right now, well clear of Western Suburbs's 1.84.
  • Napier City are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Napier City, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).
  • Napier City have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 71%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Napier City Clean Sheet 10%
Western Suburbs Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napier City Western Suburbs
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 11 11
Draws 5 2
Losses 16 19
Goals Scored 2.03 1.84
Goals Conceded 2.28 2.28
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 2.15
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 27, 2024 National League
Western Suburbs vs Napier City
2:4
Jul 7, 2019 Chatham Cup
Napier City vs Western Suburbs
4:1
Aug 8, 2015 Chatham Cup
Western Suburbs vs Napier City
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napier City 83 / 100
Western Suburbs 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napier City Western Suburbs

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napier City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napier City found the back of the net in 88% of recent matches (32 games).

Western Suburbs has conceded goals in 84% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.67 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Napier City stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Napier City VS Western Suburbs
2.5 Goals Scored 2.63
1.67 Goals Conceded 1.88
83% Over 1.5 100%
83% Over 2.5 88%
67% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Napier City

(Home)
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Napier City
Page 1 of 7

Western Suburbs

(Away)
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Miramar
2 : 1
Western Suburbs
23 Nov
Western Suburbs
1 : 0
Auckland United
15 Nov
Christchurch
3 : 1
Western Suburbs
09 Nov
Western Suburbs
1 : 1
Auckland FC 2
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Roslyn Wakari 2
Caversham 3
Bay Olympic 3
Manukau United 0
Waitakere City 1
Melville 3
Christchurch 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 1
Napier City 4
Western Suburbs 1
Albany 1
Eastern Suburbs 0
Onehunga 2
North Shore 0
Miramar 1
Wellington Olympic 3
Quarter-finals
Caversham 1
Bay Olympic 2
Melville 4
Christchurch 0
Napier City 3
Albany 2
Onehunga 5
Wellington Olympic 4
Semi-finals
Bay Olympic 0
Melville 2
Napier City 2
Onehunga 1
Final
Melville 2
Napier City 3