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Napoli vs AC Milan

Italy Italy

Super Cup King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Rabiot A.
39' Event
David Neres
Assist: Hojlund R.
63' Event
Hojlund R.
Assist: Spinazzola L.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Napoli advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Napoli
11%
Draws
9%
AC Milan
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Napoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Napoli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Napoli taking it.
  • Napoli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Napoli, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Napoli have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Napoli Clean Sheet 68%
AC Milan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napoli AC Milan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Serie A
Napoli vs AC Milan
1:0
Dec 18, 2025 Super Cup
Napoli vs AC Milan
2:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie A
AC Milan vs Napoli
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Serie A
Napoli vs AC Milan
2:1
Oct 29, 2024 Serie A
AC Milan vs Napoli
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Napoli Compare

Top Goalscorer David Neres
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hojlund R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

AC Milan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napoli 86 / 100
AC Milan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napoli AC Milan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napoli's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

AC Milan let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Napoli remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Napoli VS AC Milan
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Napoli

(Home)
26 Jul
Napoli
2 : 0
Carrarese
22 Jul
Napoli
1 : 3
Arezzo
24 May
Napoli
1 : 0
Udinese
17 May
Pisa
0 : 3
Napoli
11 May
Napoli
2 : 3
Bologna
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AC Milan

(Away)
25 Jul
Celtic
2 : 2
AC Milan
24 May
AC Milan
1 : 2
Cagliari
17 May
Genoa
1 : 2
AC Milan
10 May
AC Milan
2 : 3
Atalanta
03 May
Sassuolo
2 : 0
AC Milan
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Napoli2
AC Milan0
Bologna2
Inter1
Final
Napoli2
Bologna0