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Napoli vs AC Milan

Italy Italy

Super Cup King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Rabiot A.
39' Event
David Neres
Assist: Hojlund R.
63' Event
Hojlund R.
Assist: Spinazzola L.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Napoli
20%
Draws
52%
AC Milan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AC Milan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Napoli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 52% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Napoli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Napoli, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Napoli have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Napoli Clean Sheet 16%
AC Milan Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napoli AC Milan
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.68 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Serie A
Napoli vs AC Milan
1:0
Dec 18, 2025 Super Cup
Napoli vs AC Milan
2:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie A
AC Milan vs Napoli
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Serie A
Napoli vs AC Milan
2:1
Oct 29, 2024 Serie A
AC Milan vs Napoli
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Napoli Compare

Top Goalscorer David Neres
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hojlund R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

AC Milan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napoli 31 / 100
AC Milan 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napoli AC Milan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AC Milan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napoli's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

AC Milan let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Napoli remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Napoli VS AC Milan
2 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Napoli

(Home)
09 Sept
Napoli
0 : 1
Arsenal
05 Sept
Inter
3 : 2
Napoli
30 Aug
Napoli
1 : 2
Como
22 Aug
Genoa
0 : 2
Napoli
12 Aug
Napoli
6 : 2
Aris
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AC Milan

(Away)
12 Sept
Lazio
2 : 2
AC Milan
06 Sept
Juventus
1 : 1
AC Milan
28 Aug
AC Milan
2 : 0
Venezia
23 Aug
Torino
1 : 2
AC Milan
15 Aug
Manchester United
2 : 4
AC Milan
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Napoli 2
AC Milan 0
Bologna 2
Inter 1
Final
Napoli 2
Bologna 0