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Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Natsional Sofia host Kostinbrod in the Third League - South-West. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Natsional Sofia have averaged 1.18 scored and 1.91 conceded recently, against Kostinbrod's 1.24 scored and 1.1 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.50, favoring Kostinbrod. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Natsional Sofia
15%
Draws
51%
Kostinbrod
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kostinbrod

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Natsional Sofia haven't matched Kostinbrod's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Third League - South-West form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Natsional Sofia Clean Sheet 16%
Kostinbrod Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Natsional Sofia Kostinbrod
Matches Played 11 29
Wins 1 15
Draws 4 3
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.18 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.91 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Natsional Sofia 36 / 100
Kostinbrod 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Natsional Sofia Kostinbrod

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kostinbrod Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Natsional Sofia scored in 73% of their last 11 games.

Kostinbrod has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Difficult form: Kostinbrod registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Solid form: Natsional Sofia remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Natsional Sofia VS Kostinbrod
1.25 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Natsional Sofia

(Home)
07 Oct
Natsional Sofia
1 : 2
Septemvri Sofia 2
04 Oct
Natsional Sofia
1 : 3
Gorna
26 Sept
Levski Sofia II
0 : 0
Natsional Sofia
19 Sept
Natsional Sofia
2 : 0
Slavia Sofia 2
12 Sept
Botev Ihtiman
3 : 2
Natsional Sofia
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Kostinbrod

(Away)
03 Oct
CSKA Sofia III
1 : 0
Kostinbrod
26 Sept
Kostinbrod
0 : 1
Balkan Botevgrad
19 Sept
Belasitsa Petrich
0 : 1
Kostinbrod
12 Sept
Slivnishki Geroy
0 : 3
Kostinbrod
05 Sept
Kostinbrod
1 : 3
Septemvri Sofia 2
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