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Nautico FC vs Progresso

Brazil Brazil

Roraimense 2025
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AI Match Summary

Nautico FC enters this Roraimense 2025 fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 69%. Nautico FC averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded in recent matches. Progresso shows a form average of 0.6 goals scored and 3.8 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 4 wins for Nautico FC, 0 wins for Progresso, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 18.03.26 ended in a 2:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.88 for Nautico FC and 1.69 for Progresso, suggesting the primary value lies in the Nautico FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Nautico FC
15%
Draws
16%
Progresso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nautico FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Nautico FC picked up more points recently compared to Progresso.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Nautico FC Clean Sheet 13%
Progresso Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nautico FC Progresso
Matches Played 36 31
Wins 10 2
Draws 9 3
Losses 17 26
Goals Scored 1.42 0.61
Goals Conceded 1.94 3.81
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.88 3.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

18.03.26 Roraimense
Nautico FC vs Progresso
2:0
04.03.25 Roraimense
Nautico FC vs Progresso
5:0
14.05.24 Roraimense
Progresso vs Nautico FC
0:7
29.04.23 Roraimense
Nautico FC vs Progresso
5:3

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Nautico FC

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Progresso

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nautico FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Progresso Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nautico FC 65 / 100
Progresso 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nautico FC Progresso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nautico FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Nautico FC & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.2%
1.64
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Nautico FC is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Nautico FC 76%
Progresso 13%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Progresso will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Nautico FC's attacks.

Nautico FC 66%
Progresso 17%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Nautico FC to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Nautico FC 69%
Progresso 16%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Nautico FC vary their attacking width.

Nautico FC 72%
Progresso 15%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Progresso, allowing Nautico FC's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Nautico FC 62%
Progresso 18%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Nautico FC, while Progresso takes risks to salvage a result.

Nautico FC 79%
Progresso 18%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nautico FC attacking → ← attacking Progresso

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nautico FC have found the net in 67% of their last 36 matches.

Progresso have conceded at least one goal in 94% of their last 31 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 5.50 goals per match.

Nautico FC remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Progresso suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 9
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
2.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gremio Atletico Sampaio751123:516
2Bare751119:316
3Monte Roraima742112:414
4Sao Raimundo RR741215:713
5Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima)73139:1110
6Nautico FC71159:224
7Atl. Roraima70343:203
8Progresso70251:192