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Naval 1893 vs Mortagua FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Santos P.
51' Event
Seia Y.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Naval 1893 and Mortagua FC finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mortagua FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Naval 1893
30%
Draws
39%
Mortagua FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mortagua FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Mortagua FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Naval 1893 Clean Sheet 18%
Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naval 1893 Mortagua FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.07
Goals Conceded 1 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Naval 1893 vs Mortagua FC
0:2
Mar 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Naval 1893 vs Mortagua FC
2:0
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Naval 1893
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naval 1893 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Mortagua FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Seia Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naval 1893 32 / 100
Mortagua FC 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naval 1893 Mortagua FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mortagua FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naval 1893's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Mortagua FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Naval 1893 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Naval 1893 VS Mortagua FC
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Naval 1893

(Home)
01 Nov
O Elvas CAD
3 : 1
Naval 1893
25 Oct
Naval 1893
0 : 2
Mortagua FC
11 Oct
Nogueirense
0 : 0
Naval 1893
19 Sept
Naval 1893
0 : 2
FC Felgueiras
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
Page 1 of 6

Mortagua FC

(Away)
01 Nov
Mortagua FC
0 : 0
Alverca B
25 Oct
Naval 1893
0 : 2
Mortagua FC
11 Oct
Mortagua FC
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Leca
13 Sept
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 1
Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Os Marialvas 7 5 1 1 12:4 16
2 O Elvas CAD 7 5 1 1 13:6 16
3 Mortagua FC 7 4 2 1 11:5 14
4 Oliveira Hospital 7 4 2 1 13:9 14
5 Uniao Da Serra 7 3 3 1 10:8 12
6 SB Castelo Branco 7 3 1 3 11:14 10
7 Malveira 7 2 3 2 10:11 9
8 Fatima 7 2 2 3 15:11 8
9 Nogueirense 7 1 5 1 11:13 8
10 Naval 1893 7 2 1 4 7:9 7
11 Alverca B 7 2 1 4 10:7 7
12 Sertanense 7 0 5 2 5:9 5
13 GD Os Nazarenos 7 1 2 4 5:12 5
14 Fazendense 7 0 1 6 8:23 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)