Sport Picks

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Naval 1893 vs Vitoria Sernache

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Naval 1893 Logo

Naval 1893

2 - 0
FT
Vitoria Sernache Logo

Vitoria Sernache

Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Nuno Andre
68' Event
Nico
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Naval 1893 in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Naval 1893.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Naval 1893
15%
Draws
26%
Vitoria Sernache
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Naval 1893

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Naval 1893 lately — more wins on the board than Vitoria Sernache.
  • Naval 1893 are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Naval 1893 Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naval 1893 Vitoria Sernache
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 17 16
Draws 6 10
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.29 1.12
Goals Conceded 0.77 0.85
Expected Goals (xG) 1.21 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Naval 1893 vs Vitoria Sernache
2:0
Dec 21, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Vitoria Sernache vs Naval 1893
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naval 1893 Compare

Top Goalscorer Nuno Andre
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nico
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.6

Vitoria Sernache Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naval 1893 86 / 100
Vitoria Sernache 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naval 1893 Vitoria Sernache

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Naval 1893 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naval 1893 found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Naval 1893 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Vitoria Sernache lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Naval 1893 VS Vitoria Sernache
1.29 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
57% Over 1.5 63%
43% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Naval 1893

(Home)
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
06 Sept
Oliveira Hospital
1 : 0
Naval 1893
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3
Naval 1893
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4
Naval 1893
16 Aug
Naval 1893
1 : 2
Uniao Da Serra
Page 1 of 7

Vitoria Sernache

(Away)
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0
Covilha
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)