Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 7 2009/2010

CD Arganda

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Navalcarnero play CD Arganda in the Tercera Division - Group 7 2009/2010. It looks like a close match. Recently, Navalcarnero averaged 1.34 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. CD Arganda averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Navalcarnero won 2, CD Arganda won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 21, 2010 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Navalcarnero and 1.31 for CD Arganda. This points to a Navalcarnero double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%

Navalcarnero

29%

Draws

23%

CD Arganda

Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Navalcarnero

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence

Navalcarnero picked up more points recently compared to CD Arganda.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Navalcarnero Clean Sheet 18%

CD Arganda Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Navalcarnero	CD Arganda
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	12	6
Draws	8	10
Losses	12	14
Goals Scored	1.34	1.1
Goals Conceded	1.28	1.7

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 7

Navalcarnero vs CD Arganda

Possession: 51% - 57% Cards: 3 - 1

3:2

Dec 23, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 7

CD Arganda vs Navalcarnero

Possession: 53% - 58% Cards: 4 - 2

0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Navalcarnero 47 / 100

CD Arganda 23 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Navalcarnero CD Arganda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Navalcarnero or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20%

2.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Navalcarnero attacking → ← attacking CD Arganda

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Navalcarnero scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

CD Arganda let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Navalcarnero went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

CD Arganda lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 28

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rayo Vallecano B	38	25	10	3	68:23	85
2	Parla	38	21	11	6	65:33	74
3	Getafe B	38	20	10	8	77:41	70
4	Trival Valderas	38	21	6	11	77:45	69
5	CF Fuenlabrada	38	20	8	10	52:33	68
6	Real Madrid C	38	18	10	10	59:43	64
7	Navalcarnero	38	17	6	15	49:48	57
8	CD Mostoles	38	15	11	12	52:42	56
9	Rayo Majadahonda	38	16	6	16	46:47	54
10	AD Colmenar	38	16	5	17	53:54	53
11	Atl. Madrid C	38	14	10	14	55:51	52
12	San Fernando de Henares	38	14	8	16	42:58	50
13	San Sebastian Reyes	38	14	8	16	57:57	50
14	Atletico Pinto	38	12	11	15	43:62	47
15	Vallecas CF	38	12	10	16	46:51	46
16	Mexico	38	10	13	15	46:53	43
17	CD Arganda	38	9	12	17	40:61	39
18	Santa Ana	38	8	6	24	38:73	30
19	CD Ciempozuelos	38	6	6	26	36:80	24
20	Galactico Pegaso	38	6	5	27	27:73	23