Sport Picks
Navalcarnero vs Vallecas CF
Spain
Tercera Division - Group 7 2009/2010 
AI Match Summary
This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Navalcarnero averaging 1.2 xG at home and Vallecas CF producing 1.3 xG on their travels. Vallecas CF will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Navalcarnero to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. Our model gives the edge to Navalcarnero with a 45% win probability.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Navalcarnero picked up more points recently compared to Vallecas CF.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.31 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Navalcarnero | Vallecas CF |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 37 | 36 |
| Wins | 16 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.22 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| Possession % | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Shots per Match | 13.8 | 11.2 |
| Shots on Target | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Corners per Match | 5.6 | 4.4 |
| Yellow/Red Cards | 1.8 | 2.2 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Tactical Matchup Profile
Field Positions & Control Styles
Navalcarnero
- ✓ Dangerous on corners
- ✓ Overlap on the wings
- ✓ Quick counters
- ✗ Vulnerable to counters
- ✗ Weak in the air
Vallecas CF
- ✓ Quick recovery
- ✓ Solid midfield screen
- ✓ Quick counters
- ✗ Fouling under pressure
- ✗ Defending set pieces
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Navalcarnero Compare
Vallecas CF Compare
Availability Alerts
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Expected Match Flow Timeline
Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals
Navalcarnero will likely press early to force mistakes.
Vallecas CF should settle down and try to slow the pace.
Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.
Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Navalcarnero to push more players wide.
Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.
Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Navalcarnero have scored in 86% of their home games in the past 12 months.
Vallecas CF concede most goals (52%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.
Meetings between these sides average 26 shots per game, well above the league median.
Navalcarnero are unbeaten in 7 straight matches when scoring first.
Vallecas CF have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 matches.
Match Risk Analysis
Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability
Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.
Incentive: Navalcarnero wants a European spot, while Vallecas CF is battling relegation.
Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.
Public Accuracy Dashboard
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Recent Predictions Log
| Date | Prediction | Result | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Over 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | Home Win (1) | 2-0 | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-1 | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | Home Win (1) | 1-1 | Lost |
| 2026-06-19 | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-1 | Won |
| 2026-06-15 | Home Win (1) | 2-0 | Won |
| 2026-06-11 | Over 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | Lost |
| 2026-06-07 | Home Win (1) | 2-0 | Won |
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics