Sport Picks

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NEC FC vs Maroons

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 MTN Omondi Stadium, Bugoloobi
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Basangwa R.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between NEC FC and Maroons finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward NEC FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
NEC FC
15%
Draws
32%
Maroons
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: NEC FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • NEC FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives NEC FC a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • NEC FC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
NEC FC Clean Sheet 68%
Maroons Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric NEC FC Maroons
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 16 9
Draws 11 9
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.19 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.61 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
NEC FC vs Maroons
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 Premier League
Maroons vs NEC FC
1:1
Mar 14, 2025 Premier League
Maroons vs NEC FC
1:3
Oct 18, 2024 Premier League
NEC FC vs Maroons
2:1
Mar 13, 2024 Premier League
NEC FC vs Maroons
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

NEC FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Basangwa R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Maroons Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

NEC FC 86 / 100
Maroons 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
NEC FC Maroons

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEC FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: NEC FC scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Maroons has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: NEC FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

NEC FC VS Maroons
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

NEC FC

(Home)
15 Sept
NEC FC
4 : 1
Uganda Revenue
11 Sept
Mbarara City
0 : 0
NEC FC
01 Sept
NEC FC
3 : 1
Lugazi
29 Aug
Kampala City
0 : 2
NEC FC
23 May
Calvary
2 : 0
NEC FC
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Maroons

(Away)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
08 Sept
Maroons
1 : 2
Blacks Power
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
30 Aug
Maroons
1 : 2
Uganda Revenue
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)