Sport Picks
Necaxa U21 vs Toluca U21
Mexico
Liga MX U21 2025/2026 
Match Events
21'
21'
Estrada J.
50'
50'
Estrada J.
74'
74'
Casas B.
AI Match Summary
The Liga MX U21 2025/2026 game between Necaxa U21 and Toluca U21 finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Necaxa U21.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
15%
53%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Toluca U21 come out ahead of Necaxa U21 on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Toluca U21's way, sitting at 70%.
- Regular Liga MX U21 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
- Toluca U21 have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Necaxa U21 Clean Sheet 15%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Necaxa U21 | Toluca U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 16 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 16 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 2, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Necaxa U21
2:0
Feb 21, 2026 Liga MX U21
Necaxa U21 vs Toluca U21
3:2
Jul 12, 2025 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Necaxa U21
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Necaxa U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Casas B.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Toluca U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Estrada J.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Necaxa U21 15 / 100
Toluca U21 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Necaxa U21 Toluca U21
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TOL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Toluca U21 let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
Necaxa U21 scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
Games between these two average 2.67 goals.
Necaxa U21 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Necaxa U21 VS Toluca U21
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Necaxa U21
(Home) 02 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 0 Necaxa U21
26 Jul
Necaxa U21
0 : 3 Monterrey U21
16 Jul
Necaxa U21
2 : 1 Atlante U21
26 Apr
Cruz Azul U21
3 : 1 Necaxa U21
22 Apr
Necaxa U21
2 : 1 Guadalajara Chivas U21
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Necaxa U21
0 : 3 Monterrey U21
16 Jul
Necaxa U21
2 : 1 Atlante U21
22 Apr
Necaxa U21
2 : 1 Guadalajara Chivas U21
18 Apr
Necaxa U21
2 : 1 Tigres UANL U21
03 Apr
Necaxa U21
1 : 0 Mazatlan FC U21
Page 1 of 3
Toluca U21
(Away) 02 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 0 Necaxa U21
21 Jul
Toluca U21
1 : 1 UNAM Pumas U21
18 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas U21
2 : 3 Toluca U21
02 May
Juarez U21
3 : 0 Toluca U21
29 Apr
Toluca U21
3 : 0 Juarez U21
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas U21
2 : 3 Toluca U21
02 May
Juarez U21
3 : 0 Toluca U21
22 Apr
Mazatlan FC U21
2 : 1 Toluca U21
18 Apr
Club America U21
2 : 1 Toluca U21
04 Apr
Queretaro U21
2 : 1 Toluca U21
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America U21 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 32:20 | 32 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 26:19 | 32 |
| 3 | Juarez U21 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 23:18 | 32 |
| 4 | Monterrey U21 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 27:25 | 30 |
| 5 | Pachuca U21 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 30:18 | 29 |
| 6 | Toluca U21 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 32:22 | 29 |
| 7 | Atlas U21 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 21:23 | 29 |
| 8 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 23:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Club Leon U21 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 18:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Necaxa U21 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 23:25 | 26 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL U21 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 20:18 | 24 |
| 12 | Atletico San Luis U21 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 25:24 | 24 |
| 13 | Club Tijuana U21 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 28:23 | 22 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul U21 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 17:21 | 22 |
| 15 | Puebla U21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 17:22 | 20 |
| 16 | Queretaro U21 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 20:27 | 20 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna U21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 16:25 | 20 |
| 18 | Mazatlan FC U21 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 5:31 | 13 |
Promotion - Liga MX U21 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
