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Necaxa W vs Queretaro W

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women Estadio Victoria
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Necaxa W play Queretaro W in the Liga MX Women. Queretaro W are favorites here. Recently, Necaxa W averaged 0.57 goals scored and 3.17 conceded. Queretaro W averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.63 conceded. In past meetings, Necaxa W won 1, Queretaro W won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 22, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Necaxa W and 1.56 for Queretaro W. This points to a Queretaro W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Necaxa W
15%
Draws
57%
Queretaro W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Queretaro W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Necaxa W picked up more points recently compared to Queretaro W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Necaxa W Clean Sheet 15%
Queretaro W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Necaxa W Queretaro W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 2 4
Draws 2 5
Losses 26 21
Goals Scored 0.57 0.83
Goals Conceded 3.17 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Liga MX Women
Necaxa W vs Queretaro W
2:1
Oct 3, 2025 Liga MX Women
Queretaro W vs Necaxa W
1:0
Apr 18, 2025 Liga MX Women
Queretaro W vs Necaxa W
1:0
Oct 17, 2024 Liga MX Women
Necaxa W vs Queretaro W
0:3
Mar 29, 2024 Liga MX Women
Queretaro W vs Necaxa W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Necaxa W Compare

Top Goalscorer Porras S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Queretaro W Compare

Top Goalscorer Jimenez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Necaxa W 28 / 100
Queretaro W 53 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Necaxa W Queretaro W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Queretaro W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Queretaro W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Necaxa W attacking → ← attacking Queretaro W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Necaxa W scored in 37% of their last 30 games.

Queretaro W let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Necaxa W went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Queretaro W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

8 Points in last 5 17
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Club America W17133144:1342
2Monterrey W17124139:840
3Tigres UANL W17114241:1337
4Pachuca W17113346:1536
5Guadalajara Chivas W1797127:1334
6Toluca W17103438:2633
7Cruz Azul W1794438:1931
8Juarez W1785427:1829
9Club Tijuana W1784531:2328
10UNAM Pumas W1764723:2922
11Atletico San Luis W1763820:3221
12Mazatlan FC W1753919:2718
13Club Leon W1744932:3516
14Atlas W17331122:4012
15Puebla W17321211:4611
16Santos Laguna W17231214:299
17Queretaro W17121411:465
18Necaxa W17111511:624