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Neftci Baku 2 vs Qarabag Agdam 2

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

First Division 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Musazada M.
32'
Musazada M.
50' Event
Asgarov V.

AI Match Summary

The First Division 2022/2023 game between Neftci Baku 2 and Qarabag Agdam 2 finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftci Baku 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Neftci Baku 2
17%
Draws
13%
Qarabag Agdam 2
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Neftci Baku 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Neftci Baku 2 come out ahead of Qarabag Agdam 2 on wins alone.
  • Neftci Baku 2 are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Neftci Baku 2 here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Neftci Baku 2 Clean Sheet 20%
Qarabag Agdam 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neftci Baku 2 Qarabag Agdam 2
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 19 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 3 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2023 I Liqa
Neftci Baku 2 vs Qarabag Agdam 2
3:0
Oct 4, 2022 I Liqa
Qarabag Agdam 2 vs Neftci Baku 2
0:1
Mar 9, 2022 I Liqa
Neftci Baku 2 vs Qarabag Agdam 2
1:2
Oct 14, 2021 I Liqa
Qarabag Agdam 2 vs Neftci Baku 2
0:2
Apr 8, 2021 I Liqa
Qarabag Agdam 2 vs Neftci Baku 2
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftci Baku 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Asgarov V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Babayev H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Qarabag Agdam 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftci Baku 2 67 / 100
Qarabag Agdam 2 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neftci Baku 2 Qarabag Agdam 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Neftci Baku 2's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Recent resilience: Neftci Baku 2 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Qarabag Agdam 2 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Neftci Baku 2 VS Qarabag Agdam 2
3 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Neftci Baku 2

(Home)
23 May
MOIK Baku
2 : 4
Neftci Baku 2
16 May
Neftci Baku 2
2 : 1
Araz PFK
09 May
Gabala 2
1 : 1
Neftci Baku 2
03 May
Neftci Baku 2
2 : 2
Turan 2
26 Apr
Zira FK 2
1 : 1
Neftci Baku 2
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Qarabag Agdam 2

(Away)
23 May
Gabala 2
0 : 0
Qarabag Agdam 2
19 May
Kapaz 2
2 : 1
Qarabag Agdam 2
16 May
Qarabag Agdam 2
1 : 3
Turan 2
13 May
Zira FK 2
0 : 2
Qarabag Agdam 2
03 May
Qarabag Agdam 2
0 : 1
SumQayit FK 2
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Araz PFK28223369:2269
2Neftci Baku 228185567:3259
3Turan 2281531049:3748
4Sabail 2281351046:4444
5Gabala 228128845:2844
6Zaqatala PFK281351049:4844
7Kapaz 2281341141:3643
8MOIK Baku28127943:4243
9Lokbatan281251130:2341
10Shamakhi 2281141340:5637
11Qarabag Agdam 228941532:3931
12Zira FK 2286101228:4128
13SumQayit FK 228641836:6022
14Mingachevir28551829:5120
15Imisli FK28622021:6620
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