Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

Premier League Palms Sports Arena

Neftci Baku

2 - 1

Araz PFK

Our Tip

Match Events

20'

Andrade P.

32'

Faraj I.

57'

Breno Almeida

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neftci Baku in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Neftci Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Neftci Baku

22%

Draws

18%

Araz PFK

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Neftci Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Neftci Baku lately — more wins on the board than Araz PFK.
Neftci Baku are the model's pick here, at 60%.
Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 68%

Araz PFK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Neftci Baku	Araz PFK
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	16	10
Draws	6	6
Losses	9	14
Goals Scored	2.13	1.25
Goals Conceded	1.25	1.88
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Premier League

Neftci Baku vs Araz PFK

Possession: 48% - 49% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

Feb 1, 2026 Premier League

Araz PFK vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 41% - 44% Cards: 2 - 1

0:4

Oct 19, 2025 Premier League

Neftci Baku vs Araz PFK

Possession: 44% - 60% Cards: 1 - 2

2:2

Mar 29, 2025 Premier League

Neftci Baku vs Araz PFK

Possession: 54% - 42% Cards: 1 - 0

1:1

Jan 26, 2025 Premier League

Araz PFK vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 45% - 53% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftci Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Faraj I.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Breno Almeida

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

Araz PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Alkhasov S.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftci Baku 68 / 100

Araz PFK 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Neftci Baku Araz PFK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEF Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Neftci Baku found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Araz PFK conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Neftci Baku has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Neftci Baku VS Araz PFK

2.13 Goals Scored 1.25

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88

100% Over 1.5 88%

88% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sabah Baku	33	24	6	3	75:25	78
2	Qarabag Agdam	33	21	6	6	71:27	69
3	Turan	33	17	8	8	44:27	59
4	Neftci Baku	33	16	11	6	57:32	59
5	Zira FK	33	13	14	6	43:36	53
6	Araz PFK	33	13	7	13	44:58	46
7	SumQayit FK	33	12	5	16	45:49	41
8	Shamakhi	33	9	11	13	31:40	38
9	Imisli FK	33	7	13	13	23:43	34
10	Kapaz	33	8	3	22	25:61	27
11	Gabala	33	7	6	20	32:49	27
12	Karvan	33	3	6	24	23:66	15